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Spatial diversity of air temperature changes in Poland in 1961–2018
Theoretical and Applied Climatology ( IF 3.4 ) Pub Date : 2021-01-06 , DOI: 10.1007/s00704-020-03487-8
Marek Kejna , Marek Rudzki

The article comprises an analysis of the spatial distribution, and variability of air temperature in Poland in the years 1961–2018. It was found that the mean increase in air temperature was 0.33 °C/10 years. The most evident warming occurred in the west of the country and at the Baltic Sea (> 0.4 °C/10 years). The greatest increase in the temperature was observed in summer (July 0.48 °C/10 years), winter (January 0.46 °C/10 years) and spring (April 0.41 °C/10 years), whereas in autumn the warming was not statistically significant. The major role of atmospheric circulation in shaping air temperature in Poland was corroborated. The positive correlation with the NAO was confirmed, and Pearson’s linear correlation coefficient (r) reached 0.81 in the north of Poland in January. An analysis of the variability of air temperature in Toruń (Central Poland) in 1991–2018 demonstrated that the increase in temperature was correlated with a solar irradiance (r = 0.69 in July). Moreover, the types of atmospheric circulation and incoming air masses are also significant. The type of baric centre was found to play a very important role that is opposite in winter to what it is in summer. In cyclonic situations, air temperature increased in winter (r = 0.65 in January) and decreased in the warm half of the year (r = − 0.47 in September). An intensified flow of incoming air masses from the west caused air temperature to increase in winter (r = 0.72 in January) and to cool in summer (r = − 0.69 in August). The role of meridional flow becomes particularly evident in autumn (r = 0.49 in October).



中文翻译:

1961–2018年波兰气温变化的空间多样性

本文对波兰1961–2018年间的空间分布和气温变化进行了分析。结果发现,平均气温上升是0.33°C / 10年。最明显的变暖发生在该国西部和波罗的海(> 0.4°C / 10年)。在夏季(7月0.48°C / 10年),冬季(1月0.46°C / 10年)和春季(4月0.41°C / 10年)观察到温度的最大增加,而在秋季,则没有统计学上的增温重大。证实了大气环流在影响波兰气温方面的主要作用。确认与NAO呈正相关,并且Pearson线性相关系数(r)在一月份在波兰北部达到0.81。1991年至2018年对托伦(波兰中部)气温变化的分析表明,温度的升高与太阳辐照度相关(7月r = 0.69)。此外,大气环流的类型和进入的空气质量也很重要。人们发现,重心的类型起着非常重要的作用,冬季与夏季相反。在气旋情况下,冬季气温升高(一月r = 0.65),而在温暖的半年温度降低(九月r = − 0.47)。来自西部的大量进气流导致冬季气温升高(r=一月0.72)和夏季凉爽(八月r = − 0.69)。在秋季,子午流的作用尤为明显(10月r = 0.49)。

更新日期:2021-01-07
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