Various uncertainties exist in a hindcast due to the inabilities of numerical models to resolve all the complicated atmosphere-sea interactions, and the lack of certain ground truth observations. Here, a comprehensive analysis of an atmospheric model performance in hindcast mode (Hurricane Weather and Research Forecasting model—HWRF) and its 40 ensembles during severe events is conducted, evaluating the model accuracy and uncertainty for hurricane track parameters, and wind speed collected along satellite altimeter tracks and at stationary source point observations. Subsequently, the downstream spectral wave model WAVEWATCH III is forced by two sets of wind field data, each includes 40 members. The first ones are randomly extracted from original HWRF simulations and the second ones are based on spread of best track parameters. The atmospheric model spread and wave model error along satellite altimeters tracks and at stationary source point observations are estimated. The study on Hurricane Irma reveals that wind and wave observations during this extreme event are within ensemble spreads. While both Models have wide spreads over areas with landmass, maximum uncertainty in the atmospheric model is at hurricane eye in contrast to the wave model.

由于数值模型无法解决所有复杂的海-气相互作用，并且缺乏某些地面实况观测值，因此后验中存在各种不确定性。在此，对后预报模式下的大气模型性能（飓风天气和研究预测模型—HWRF）及其在严重事件中的40个集合进行了综合分析，评估了飓风轨道参数以及沿卫星收集的风速的模型准确性和不确定性高度计轨迹和固定的源点观测值。随后，下游频谱波模型WAVEWATCH III受两组风场数据的推动，每组都包含40个成员。第一个是从原始HWRF仿真中随机提取的，第二个是基于最佳轨道参数的扩展。估算了沿卫星高度计轨道和在固定源点处观测到的大气模型扩展和波浪模型误差。对艾尔玛飓风的研究表明，在这种极端事件中的风浪观测在整体范围内。虽然这两种模型在具有陆块的区域上都有广泛的分布，但与波浪模型相比，大气模型中的最大不确定性受到了飓风的关注。