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Persistence of Methane Emission in OECD Countries for 1750–2014: a Fractional Integration Approach
Environmental Modeling & Assessment ( IF 2.7 ) Pub Date : 2021-01-07 , DOI: 10.1007/s10666-020-09743-5
Sakiru Adebola Solarin , Luis A. Gil-Alana

Anthropogenic methane emission is the most important greenhouse gas, after CO2 emission. However, various aspects of methane emission have not been adequately examined in the existing literature including its persistence, methane emission, which is a measure of the extent to which short-term shocks (resulting from new government initiatives) are able to generate permanent future changes. It is important to determine the persistence of methane emissions. The existence of persistence of methane emissions implies that any temporary shock will have a permanent impact on methane emissions and the methane emission level will not move back to its steady long-term growth path. The persistence of the methane emissions in a group of 36 OECD countries has been examined in this work for the time period 1750–2014 using techniques based on fractional integration. This allows us to determine the degree of persistence of the series and the potential presence of trends in the data. Our results indicate that all series are highly persistent, with orders of integration above 1 in the majority of the cases. Linear (positive) trends are observed in approximately half of the cases. One of the implications of these findings is that policies designed for decreasing methane emissions will have a long-term impact in these countries. The methane emission policies include improvement in the equipment employed to generate, store and convey natural gas and oil; changing manure management policies; modifications to animal feeding strategies and introduction of emission controls that capture landfill methane.



中文翻译:

1750-2014年间经合组织国家甲烷排放的持续存在:一种分数整合方法

人为甲烷排放是仅次于CO 2的最重要的温室气体排放。但是,现有文献中并未对甲烷排放的各个方面进行充分的研究,包括其持久性,甲烷排放,这是衡量短期冲击(由新的政府举措产生)能够在未来产生永久性变化的程度。确定甲烷排放的持久性很重要。甲烷排放的持续存在意味着任何暂时的冲击都会对甲烷排放产生永久性的影响,并且甲烷排放水平不会回到其长期稳定的增长路径。在这项工作中,使用了基于分数积分的技术,研究了1750-2014年期间OECD 36个国家中甲烷排放的持久性。这使我们能够确定序列的持续程度以及数据趋势的潜在存在。我们的结果表明,所有序列都是高度持久的,在大多数情况下,积分阶数都高于1。在大约一半的情况下观察到线性(正)趋势。这些发现的含义之一是,旨在减少甲烷排放量的政策将对这些国家产生长期影响。甲烷排放政策包括改进用于生产,储存和输送天然气和石油的设备;改变粪便管理政策;修改动物饲养策略并引入捕获沼气的排放控制措施。在大多数情况下,积分阶数大于1。在大约一半的情况下观察到线性(正)趋势。这些发现的含义之一是,旨在减少甲烷排放量的政策将对这些国家产生长期影响。甲烷排放政策包括改进用于生产,储存和输送天然气和石油的设备;改变粪便管理政策;修改动物饲养策略并引入捕获沼气的排放控制措施。在大多数情况下,积分阶数大于1。在大约一半的情况下观察到线性(正)趋势。这些发现的含义之一是,旨在减少甲烷排放量的政策将对这些国家产生长期影响。甲烷排放政策包括改进用于生产,储存和输送天然气和石油的设备;改变粪便管理政策;修改动物饲养策略并引入捕获沼气的排放控制措施。甲烷排放政策包括改进用于生产,储存和输送天然气和石油的设备;改变粪便管理政策;修改动物饲养策略并引入捕获沼气的排放控制措施。甲烷排放政策包括改进用于生产,储存和输送天然气和石油的设备;改变粪便管理政策;修改动物饲养策略并引入捕获沼气的排放控制措施。

更新日期:2021-01-07
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