For evaluation of the seismic stability of submarine slopes, traditional deterministic methods may not reflect the actual situation due to the uncertainties in input values such as seismic acceleration, soil properties, and hydraulic conditions. In this study, probabilistic analyses were conducted based on the use of an enhanced Newmark method to evaluate the seismic stability of submarine slopes. In the probabilistic workflow, the infinite slope model was used, whereby the spatially varied strengths of marine sediments were simulated by non-stationary random fields discretized by the Karhunen-Loève expansion. The positions of the potential slip surfaces were searched automatically, rather than being predefined as in the traditional limit equilibrium method. Artificial earthquake accelerations, exhibiting the same spectral characteristics, were simulated as the input ground motions in the probabilistic analysis. The pore water pressure generation and dissipation models were incorporated into the enhanced Newmark method when calculating the permanent displacements of the submarine slopes. Monte Carlo simulations were conducted for statistical characterization of the slope displacements and their failure probabilities. The results of the analysis indicate the superiority of the probabilistic framework and demonstrate the significant effects of pore water pressure and the spatial variability of the soil strength on the displacements and failure probabilities of submarine slopes.

为了评估海底斜坡的地震稳定性，由于输入值（例如地震加速度，土壤特性和水力条件）的不确定性，传统的确定性方法可能无法反映实际情况。在这项研究中，基于增强的Newmark方法的使用进行了概率分析，以评估海底斜坡的地震稳定性。在概率工作流程中，使用了无限斜率模型，从而通过由Karhunen-Loève扩展离散化的非平稳随机场来模拟海洋沉积物的空间变化强度。自动搜索潜在滑移面的位置，而不是像传统的极限平衡方法那样预先定义。具有相同频谱特征的人工地震加速度，被模拟为概率分析中的输入地面运动。在计算海底斜坡的永久位移时，将孔隙水压力产生和耗散模型合并到增强的Newmark方法中。进行了蒙特卡洛模拟，以统计表征斜坡位移及其破坏概率。分析结果表明了概率框架的优越性，并证明了孔隙水压力和土壤强度的空间变化对海底边坡位移和破坏概率的显着影响。在计算海底斜坡的永久位移时，将孔隙水压力产生和耗散模型合并到增强的Newmark方法中。进行了蒙特卡洛模拟，以统计表征斜坡位移及其破坏概率。分析结果表明了概率框架的优越性，并证明了孔隙水压力和土壤强度的空间变化对海底边坡位移和破坏概率的显着影响。在计算海底斜坡的永久位移时，将孔隙水压力产生和耗散模型合并到增强的Newmark方法中。进行了蒙特卡洛模拟，以统计表征斜坡位移及其破坏概率。分析结果表明了概率框架的优越性，并证明了孔隙水压力和土壤强度的空间变化对海底边坡位移和破坏概率的显着影响。