In this paper we propose a novel method to forecast the result of elections using only official results of previous ones. It is based on the voter model with stubborn nodes and uses theoretical results developed in a previous work of ours. We look at popular vote shares for the Conservative and Labour parties in the UK and the Republican and Democrat parties in the US. We are able to perform time-evolving estimates of the model parameters and use these to forecast the vote shares for each party in any election. We obtain a mean absolute error of 4.74%. As a side product, our parameters estimates provide meaningful insight on the political landscape, informing us on the proportion of voters that are strong supporters of each of the considered parties.

在本文中，我们提出了一种仅使用以前的官方结果来预测选举结果的新颖方法。它基于带有顽固节点的选民模型，并使用我们先前工作中开发的理论结果。我们来看英国保守党和工党以及美国共和党和民主党的民意投票份额。我们能够执行模型参数随时间变化的估计，并使用这些预测来预测任何选举中每一方的投票份额。我们获得的平均绝对误差为4.74％。作为辅助产品，我们的参数估计值可提供有关政治前景的有意义的见解，从而向我们提供支持每个被考虑方的选民的比例。