The relationship between processes and time-varying covariates is of central theoretical interest in addressing many social science research questions. On the one hand, event history analysis (EHA) has been the chosen method to study these kinds of relationships when the outcomes can be meaningfully specified as simple instantaneous events or transitions. On the other hand, sequence analysis (SA) has made increasing inroads into the social sciences to analyze trajectories as holistic “process outcomes.” We propose an original combination of these two approaches called the sequence analysis multistate model (SAMM) procedure. The SAMM procedure allows the study of the relationship between time-varying covariates and trajectories of categorical states specified as process outcomes that unfold over time. The SAMM is a stepwise procedure: (1) SA-related methods are used to identify ideal-typical patterns of changes within trajectories obtained by considering the sequence of states over a predefined time span; (2) multistate event history models are estimated to study the probability of transitioning from a specific state to such ideal-typical patterns. The added value of the SAMM procedure is illustrated through an example from life-course sociology on how (1) time-varying family status is associated with women’s employment trajectories in East and West Germany and (2) how German reunification affected these trajectories in the two subsocieties.

中文翻译：

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估计时变协变量和轨迹之间的关系：序列分析多状态模型程序

过程和随时间变化的协变量之间的关系是解决许多社会科学研究问题的核心理论兴趣。一方面，当结果可以有意义地指定为简单的瞬时事件或转换时，事件历史分析 (EHA) 已成为研究此类关系的首选方法。另一方面，序列分析 (SA) 越来越多地进入社会科学，将轨迹分析为整体“过程结果”。我们提出了这两种方法的原始组合，称为序列分析多状态模型 (SAMM) 程序。SAMM 程序允许研究随时间变化的协变量与指定为随时间展开的过程结果的分类状态轨迹之间的关系。SAMM 是一个循序渐进的过程：(1) SA 相关方法用于识别通过考虑预定义时间跨度内的状态序列而获得的轨迹内的理想典型变化模式；(2) 估计多状态事件历史模型来研究从特定状态转换到这种理想典型模式的概率。SAMM 程序的附加价值通过生命历程社会学的一个例子来说明：（1）随时间变化的家庭状况如何与东德和西德的妇女就业轨迹相关联，以及（2）德国统一如何影响这些轨迹两个亚社会。(2) 估计多状态事件历史模型来研究从特定状态转换到这种理想典型模式的概率。SAMM 程序的附加价值通过生命历程社会学的一个例子来说明：（1）随时间变化的家庭状况如何与东德和西德的妇女就业轨迹相关联，以及（2）德国统一如何影响这些轨迹两个亚社会。(2) 估计多状态事件历史模型来研究从特定状态转换到这种理想典型模式的概率。SAMM 程序的附加价值通过生命历程社会学的一个例子来说明：（1）随时间变化的家庭状况如何与东德和西德的妇女就业轨迹相关联，以及（2）德国统一如何影响这些轨迹两个亚社会。