The article discusses futures in housing development by applying the approaches from ‘future studies’ to design two explorative scenarios reflecting alternative strategies for achieving sustainable and just housing development. The main aim is to develop scenarios that can achieve a specific normative goal: a future housing development that is both environmentally sustainable and socially just. Two scenarios are built – ecological modernisation and degrowth – that reflect different degrees of societal change, ranging from conventional to radical. The scenarios are applied to the two selected cases of the Milan and Oslo regions, drawing on the statistics of the contextual housing system and the document analysis on planning and housing. We further discuss how the specific scenarios can take place and which challenges will be encountered.

本文通过应用“未来研究”的方法来设计两个探索性情景，以反映实现可持续和公正的住房发展的替代策略，从而讨论住房发展的未来。主要目标是开发可以实现特定规范目标的情景：既环境可持续又社会公正的未来住房开发。构建了两种情景——生态现代化和退化——反映了不同程度的社会变化，从传统到激进。这些情景被应用于米兰和奥斯陆地区的两个选定案例，借鉴了上下文住房系统的统计数据和关于规划和住房的文件分析。我们进一步讨论了特定场景如何发生以及将遇到哪些挑战。