Abstract The recent history of planning policy in England leaves the treatment of housing supply in a confused position. Much depends on the analysis of evidence on the current and future need and demand for housing for groups of inter-related localities. Arguably the most appropriate spatial scale of analysis of market adjustment processes is the functional urban sub-region, and this article discusses the development and application of an economic market model at this level, applied to c. 100 functional housing market areas across England. This goes beyond most previous analyses of UK housing markets, which have lacked explicit treatment of land-use planning and the supply process, while also recognising the economic and supply influences on demographic change. Based mainly on short-medium panel datasets and some micro surveys, component models for migration, household formation, prices, rents, and new construction are estimated and combined with simpler labour market and demographic accounting to build a simulation model which can explore the potential impacts of economic, demographic and planning policy scenarios. Through a range of examples applied to groupings of sub-regions, and two local case studies, this paper focuses on the way housebuilding, demographics and markets adjust to local decisions and the implications of this ‘outcome-oriented’ approach for planning. The results confirm a wider literature in showing that planning restriction raises housing costs, but underlines that the effects are quite gradual, particularly given the rather partial response of new housebuilding itself to planning decisions. They also show the interdependence between nearby sub-regions, and the likely adverse effects of leaving decisions to the local level, as well as the somewhat mixed impact of different levels of economic growth.

中文翻译：

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作为地方规划决策结果的房屋建设、人口变化和负担能力：使用英格兰住房市场的次区域模型探索相互作用

摘要 英国最近的规划政策历史使住房供应的处理处于一个混乱的位置。在很大程度上取决于对有关相互关联的地区群体当前和未来住房需求和需求的证据的分析。可以说，分析市场调整过程最合适的空间尺度是功能性城市子区域，本文讨论了在这个层面上的经济市场模型的发展和应用，适用于 c。英格兰 100 个功能性住房市场区域。这超出了之前对英国住房市场的大多数分析，这些分析缺乏对土地使用规划和供应过程的明确处理，同时也认识到经济和供应对人口变化的影响。主要基于短中面板数据集和一些微观调查，移民、家庭形成、价格、租金和新建筑的组成模型被估计，并与更简单的劳动力市场和人口统计相结合，以构建一个模拟模型，该模型可以探索经济、人口和规划政策情景的潜在影响。通过一系列应用于子区域分组的例子和两个当地案例研究，本文重点关注房屋建设、人口统计和市场适应当地决策的方式以及这种“以结果为导向”的规划方法的影响。结果证实了更广泛的文献表明规划限制会增加住房成本，但强调影响是相当渐进的，特别是考虑到新房建设本身对规划决策的反应相当部分。