The Jaffna Peninsula in Sri Lanka has a generally flat topography with a median elevation of 2.72 m, and thus faces a high risk from sea-level rise that has the potential to have adverse impacts on the livelihoods of coastal communities. Understanding these risks and identifying the regions that could be adversely impacted is critical for planning future settlements and developing preventative protocols where possible. The aim of this study was to analyze the exposure of coastal settlements of the Jaffna Peninsula to climate risks, particularly to sea-level rise, and to identify the areas that are likely to be impacted under different sea-level rise scenarios. Raster-based sea-level rise modeling was performed with a digital elevation model produced with topographic contours and spot heights. The spatial distribution of individual residential houses for the entire Jaffna Peninsula was obtained through manual digitization using virtual globe platforms and high-resolution satellite images, and the houses exposed to inundation under various Representative Concentration Pathways from 2025 to 2100 were identified. The results showed that a majority (55.5%) of the residential buildings in the Jaffna Peninsula are located within 3 m above sea level. Approximately 5554 (5.6%) of the houses were projected to be inundated by 2100, and this projection increased to approximately 25,074 (25.4%) under high tide scenarios. This study highlights the coastal communities with a high level of exposure to coastal inundation where adaptation planning is essential. These results provide insights for coastal managers and policy makers for future planning of new settlements and urban expansion.

中文翻译：

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斯里兰卡贾夫纳半岛的沿海定居模式和海平面上升风险

斯里兰卡贾夫纳半岛地势总体平坦，平均海拔为 2.72 m，因此面临海平面上升的高风险，有可能对沿海社区的生计产生不利影响。了解这些风险并确定可能受到不利影响的地区对于规划未来的定居点和尽可能制定预防性协议至关重要。本研究的目的是分析贾夫纳半岛沿海定居点对气候风险的影响，特别是海平面上升，并确定在不同海平面上升情景下可能受到影响的区域。基于栅格的海平面上升建模是使用由地形等高线和点高度生成的数字高程模型进行的。使用虚拟地球平台和高分辨率卫星图像通过人工数字化获得整个贾夫纳半岛个体住宅的空间分布，并确定了2025年至2100年在各种代表性集中路径下遭受淹没的房屋。结果表明，贾夫纳半岛的大部分住宅（55.5%）都位于海拔 3 m 以内。预计到 2100 年，大约有 5554 座（5.6%）的房屋将被淹没，在高潮情景下，这一预测增加到大约 25,074 座（25.4%）。这项研究强调了沿海社区高度暴露于沿海洪水的风险，在这些社区中，适应规划是必不可少的。