In September 2017, Hurricane Maria made landfall on Puerto Rico causing 102 billion worth of damages, demolishing the electric grid and severely affecting essential daily services. Disaster recovery continues as of the onset of the second half of 2020. Our research investigates whether the postdisaster population mobility was greater than the long-term out-migration that has followed the economic recession. This paper makes use of longitudinal demographic and economic data spanning Hurricane Maria to give a long-term view of population change in Puerto Rico. First, we examine population and employment trends in relation to hurricanes and significant economic events and find that population change is more responsive to employment shocks than hurricane events. Second, we examine air passenger travel data to estimate net migration between 2010 and 2018. The data reveal a sharp spike in out-migration following the hurricanes as well as elevated in-migration in the first half of 2018. In short, the evidence presented suggests that the struggling economy is the main cause of net out-migration from Puerto Rico, while out-migration in response to the hurricane-related destruction is mostly temporary. Consequently, plans for Puerto Rico’s recovery should focus on stimulating the economy.

中文翻译：

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波多黎各外流：长期经济逆风证明比飓风玛丽亚更强

2017 年 9 月，飓风玛丽亚登陆波多黎各，造成 1020 亿美元的损失，摧毁了电网并严重影响了基本的日常服务。从 2020 年下半年开始，灾后恢复仍在继续。我们的研究调查了灾后人口流动是否大于经济衰退后的长期外迁。本文利用跨越飓风玛丽亚的纵向人口和经济数据，对波多黎各的人口变化进行长期观察。首先，我们研究了与飓风和重大经济事件相关的人口和就业趋势，发现与飓风事件相比，人口变化对就业冲击的反应更大。第二，我们检查了航空旅客旅行数据，以估计 2010 年至 2018 年之间的净迁移。数据显示，2018 年上半年飓风过后，外迁急剧增加，而迁入增加。简而言之，所提供的证据表明陷入困境的经济是波多黎各净移民的主要原因，而为应对飓风相关破坏而进行的移民大多是暂时的。因此，波多黎各的复苏计划应侧重于刺激经济。而为应对与飓风有关的破坏而进行的外迁大多是暂时的。因此，波多黎各的复苏计划应侧重于刺激经济。而为应对与飓风有关的破坏而进行的外迁大多是暂时的。因此，波多黎各的复苏计划应侧重于刺激经济。