This paper examines the effects of the 2012 revisions to the damage predictions of an anticipated Nankai Trough megathrust earthquake on subsequent inter-municipality migration in Japan’s coastal areas. We find that an increase in predicted tsunami height—rather than anticipated seismic movements—after the 2012 revision is associated with a subsequent reduction in net migration. While the reducing effect of tsunami predictions on in-migration persisted throughout the study period, the effect on out-migration was only temporary. Moreover, working-age people are more likely to respond to tsunami risk and avoid moving to municipalities with a high tsunami risk after the revisions.

中文翻译：

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自然灾害信息和跨城市迁移：来自预期南海海槽地震的证据

本文研究了 2012 年对预计发生的南海海槽特大地震破坏预测的修订对日本沿海地区随后的城市间迁移的影响。我们发现，在 2012 年修订后，预测海啸高度的增加（而不是预期的地震运动）与随后的净迁移减少有关。虽然在整个研究期间，海啸预测对迁入的减少影响持续存在，但对迁出的影响只是暂时的。此外，工作年龄的人更有可能应对海啸风险，避免在修订后搬到海啸风险高的城市。