Though international out-migration is widespread, little evidence exists regarding the consequences for economic change in sending countries, particularly in the densely populated agricultural areas of Asia. We examine associations between labor out-migration, remittances, and agricultural change in Nepal. Existing studies of this important population-environment relationship generally ignore the role of local community context, which is known to shape demographic behavior and likely exit from farming as well. Research offers opposing views of the consequences of out-migration for agricultural change—(1) loss of farm labor reduces engagement in agriculture, versus (2) loosening credit constraints from remittances increases engagement in agriculture—and indicates that both mechanisms likely operate simultaneously. Both of these mechanisms are likely to be shaped by changes in local context. Using multilevel dynamic models, we estimate associations between out-migration and remittances by household members and subsequent exit from farming, controlling for variations in community context. Results suggest international out-migration is associated with higher odds of exit from farming and simultaneously remittances are associated with lower odds of exit from farming. Results are robust against several key variations in model specification, including controls for household characteristics and local community context. However, local community context exerts an important independent influence on the hazard of exit from farming.

中文翻译：

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尼泊尔的社会变革、人口外流和农业退出


尽管国际移民现象很普遍，但很少有证据表明移民输出国经济变化的后果，特别是在亚洲人口稠密的农业地区。我们研究了尼泊尔劳动力外流、汇款和农业变革之间的关联。现有对这种重要的人口与环境关系的研究通常忽略了当地社区环境的作用，众所周知，当地社区环境会影响人口行为，也可能影响农业的退出。研究对人口外流对农业变革的后果提出了相反的观点——（1）农业劳动力的流失减少了对农业的参与，而（2）放松汇款信贷限制会增加对农业的参与——并表明这两种机制可能同时运作。这两种机制都可能受到当地环境变化的影响。使用多层次动态模型，我们估计了家庭成员的外迁和汇款与随后退出农业之间的关联，并控制了社区背景的变化。结果表明，国际移民与退出农业的可能性较高相关，同时汇款与退出农业的可能性较低相关。结果针对模型规范中的几个关键变化（包括对家庭特征和当地社区背景的控制）是稳健的。然而，当地社区环境对退出农业的风险具有重要的独立影响。