Abstract Education and family planning can both be influenced by policy and are thought to accelerate fertility decline. However, questions remain about the nature of these effects. Does the effect of education operate through increasing educational attainment of women or educational enrollment of children? At which educational level is the effect strongest? Does the effect of family planning operate through increasing contraceptive prevalence or reducing unmet need? Is education or family planning more important? We assessed the quantitative impact of education and family planning in high‐fertility settings using a regression framework inspired by Granger causality. We found that women's attainment of lower secondary education is key to accelerating fertility decline and found an accelerating effect of contraceptive prevalence for modern methods. We found the impact of contraceptive prevalence to be substantially larger than that of education. These accelerating effects hold in sub‐Saharan Africa, but with smaller effect sizes there than elsewhere.

中文翻译：

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教育和计划生育如何加速生育率下降？

摘要 教育和计划生育都受政策影响，被认为会加速生育率下降。然而，关于这些影响的性质仍然存在问题。教育的效果是否通过提高妇女的受教育程度或儿童的教育入学率来发挥作用？在哪个教育水平上效果最强？计划生育的效果是通过增加避孕普及率还是减少未满足的需求来发挥作用？教育还是计划生育更重要？我们使用受格兰杰因果关系启发的回归框架评估了高生育率环境中教育和计划生育的定量影响。我们发现女性 获得初中教育是加速生育率下降的关键，并发现现代方法对避孕药具的普及有加速作用。我们发现避孕普及率的影响远大于教育的影响。这些加速影响在撒哈拉以南非洲地区成立，但在那里的影响规模比其他地方小。