Does anyone know the exact number of centenarians in Brazil? Since the nineteenth century, the census has provided the number of 100-year-olds in one of the most populous countries worldwide. In 1900, 4,438 individuals reported themselves to be centenarians, and 100 years later, 24,576 centenarians were recorded in the census. Due to data quality issues, we are skeptical about the real growth of the recorded population in the census. Therefore, we produce new statistics of the centenarian population through the variable-r method combined with different mortality models. We offer a set of estimates of the most likely number of centenarians in Brazil over the period 1900-2000. There was virtually no centenarian at the beginning of the twentieth century, and only in the 1990s, the centenarian population surpassed 1,000 individuals. Our estimates confirm an extensive over-enumeration of centenarians in census records since 1900. The good news is the improvement in census data collection over time.

中文翻译：

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巴西百岁老人人口：1900 年至 2000 年的历史估计

有谁知道巴西百岁老人的确切人数？自 19 世纪以来，人口普查提供了世界上人口最多的国家之一的 100 岁人口数量。1900 年，有 4,438 人报告自己是百岁老人，100 年后，人口普查记录了 24,576 名百岁老人。由于数据质量问题，我们对人口普查中记录人口的实际增长持怀疑态度。因此，我们通过变量 r 方法结合不同的死亡率模型来生成新的百岁人口统计数据。我们提供了一组对 1900-2000 年期间巴西最有可能的百岁老人人数的估计。二十世纪初几乎没有百岁老人，仅在 1990 年代，百岁老人就超过了 1000 人。