After two decades of research, the evidence in cross-cultural studies has shown that the lay theories of happiness are not universal. Significant variations have been found in the beliefs about the sources of happiness between countries. However, heterogeneities within countries have been overlooked. In this article, I documented a folk theory of happiness beliefs for the Chilean case. Using factorial surveys, I estimated (a) causal beliefs of happiness, (b) the contingency of the belief about income upon other domains, and (c) the heterogeneity of these beliefs when considering respondents’ experience on these dimensions. Health and income are the most prominent determinants of happiness in the belief system of Chileans. For the first time, income is reported as a prominent source of happiness from the perspective of laypeople. Nevertheless, this belief is contingent upon several of the other sources of happiness. In addition, the experience of long-exposure life circumstances explains the heterogeneity of beliefs about lifestyle and partner relationships. Overall, these findings compel us to re-evaluate other once-believed collectivistic countries that have gone through structural changes like Chile. Finally, the potentialities of using factorial surveys for cultural analysis are highlighted.

经过二十年的研究，跨文化研究的证据表明，幸福的外行理论并不普遍。人们对国家间幸福源头的看法存在重大差异。但是，国家内部的异质性被忽视了。在本文中，我记录了有关智利案例的民间幸福信念理论。我使用析因调查，估计了（a）关于幸福的因果信念，（b）关于其他领域的收入信念的偶然性，以及（c）考虑受访者在这些方面的经验时，这些信念的异质性。在智利人的信仰体系中，健康和收入是幸福的最主要决定因素。从外行人的角度来看，收入首次成为幸福的重要来源。不过，这种信念取决于其他一些幸福的来源。此外，长时间接触生活的经历也解释了关于生活方式和伴侣关系的信念的异质性。总体而言，这些发现迫使我们重新评估经历了结构性变化的其他曾经被视为集体主义的国家，例如智利。最后，强调了使用析因调查进行文化分析的潜力。