Although the Trump administration claims to be seeking ‘the ultimate deal’ to end the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the effective attainment of this goal is subordinate to both domestic political concerns and wider Middle East foreign policy calculations. Using the shared antipathy between Israel and the Arab world towards Iran to reach an agreement is sound in principle but is being applied in such a way as to make sustainable Israeli-Palestinian peace through a two-state solution even more unlikely. Trump has sided wholly with the right-wing Israeli government led by Prime Minister Netanyahu and has shown little regard for Palestinian needs, adopting an incoherent and unbalanced mediation strategy centred on power rather than principles. Regional partners such as Egypt and Saudi Arabia are applying pressure to the Palestinians with caution, given the continued relevance of Jerusalem to their populations. Any future peace deal will have to address Palestinian concerns in tandem with Israeli concerns, and show a level of understanding of Palestinian needs yet to be evinced. Meanwhile, Trump’s intervention in the conflict is setting into motion trends in Israeli and Palestinian society which may finally render the two-state solution dead and buried.

中文翻译：

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无大师：特朗普、耶路撒冷和以巴和平的前景

尽管特朗普政府声称正在寻求结束以巴冲突的“最终协议”，但这一目标的有效实现从属于国内政治关切和更广泛的中东外交政策考量。利用以色列和阿拉伯世界对伊朗的共同反感来达成协议在原则上是合理的，但其应用方式使得通过两国解决方案实现可持续的以色列-巴勒斯坦和平变得更加不可能。特朗普完全站在内塔尼亚胡总理领导的以色列右翼政府一边，对巴勒斯坦人的需求漠不关心，采取了以权力而非原则为中心的不连贯和不平衡的调解策略。埃及和沙特阿拉伯等区域合作伙伴正在谨慎地向巴勒斯坦人施加压力，鉴于耶路撒冷与其人口的持续相关性。任何未来的和平协议都必须与以色列的关切一起解决巴勒斯坦的关切，并表现出对巴勒斯坦需求的理解程度尚待证明。与此同时，特朗普对冲突的干预正在引发以色列和巴勒斯坦社会的运动趋势，这可能最终使两国解决方案消亡。