Objectives

Previous research in criminology has overlooked that cohort effects on crime should be age-time-specific (Ryder in Am Sociol Rev 30(6):843–861, 1965) and consequently assumed cohort effects to be the same across the life course. The current study addresses these limitations by modeling cohort effects as the differential impacts of social change depending on age groups. With this new operationalization that is closely tied to Ryder’s conceptualization, we examine both inter-cohort differences and intra-cohort dynamics in violent crime.

Methods

We use the age–period–cohort-interaction (APC-I) model developed by Luo and Hodges (Sociol Methods Res 2020) to analyze the UCR age-specific arrest statistics for robbery, aggravated assaults, and homicide from 1960 to 2014. Specifically, we estimate and test two types of cohort variation: average cohort deviations and life-course dynamics.

Results

Our findings reveal varying degrees of cohort deviations at different ages. The early boomers (born between 1945 and 1954) and the late boomers (born between 1955 and 1964) demonstrate different intra-cohort dynamics of robbery arrest, and the violence epidemic cohorts’ (born between 1975 and 1984) high risks of homicide arrest appear to be driven by cohort deviations at young ages.

Conclusions

The APC-I framework introduced in this study provides new insights into the dynamic aspect of cohort effects on violent crime that have not been examined in the criminological literature. Criminological studies on cohort effects would benefit by shifting away from the problematic assumption of constant and additive cohort effects to the dynamic and interactive approach represented by the APC-I framework.

中文翻译：

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1960 年至 2014 年美国暴力犯罪模式的群体变化：年龄-时期-群体交互方法

 目标

以前的犯罪学研究忽视了犯罪的群体效应应该是特定于年龄和时间的（Ryder in Am Sociol Rev 30(6):843–861, 1965），因此假设群体效应在整个生命过程中是相同的。目前的研究通过将群体效应建模为社会变革对不同年龄组的不同影响来解决这些局限性。通过这种与莱德的概念化密切相关的新操作，我们研究了暴力犯罪中的群体间差异和群体内动态。

 方法

我们使用由 Luo 和 Hodges 开发的年龄-时期-群组交互作用 (APC-I) 模型（SociolMethods Res 2020）来分析 1960 年至 2014 年 UCR 的抢劫、严重袭击和凶杀案件的特定年龄逮捕统计数据。 ，我们估计并测试两种类型的队列变异：平均队列偏差和生命历程动态。

 结果

我们的研究结果揭示了不同年龄段的队列偏差程度不同。早期婴儿潮一代（1945年至1954年出生）和晚期婴儿潮一代（1955年至1964年出生）表现出不同的抢劫逮捕动态，而暴力流行群体（1975年至1984年出生）则出现凶杀被捕的高风险是由年轻时的群体偏差所驱动的。

 结论

本研究中引入的 APC-I 框架为暴力犯罪群体效应的动态方面提供了新的见解，而这些见解尚未在犯罪学文献中得到检验。关于群体效应的犯罪学研究将受益于从恒定和附加群体效应的有问题的假设转向以 APC-I 框架为代表的动态和交互方法。