Objectives

Previous research in criminology has overlooked that cohort effects on crime should be age-time-specific (Ryder in Am Sociol Rev 30(6):843–861, 1965) and consequently assumed cohort effects to be the same across the life course. The current study addresses these limitations by modeling cohort effects as the differential impacts of social change depending on age groups. With this new operationalization that is closely tied to Ryder’s conceptualization, we examine both inter-cohort differences and intra-cohort dynamics in violent crime.

Methods

We use the age–period–cohort-interaction (APC-I) model developed by Luo and Hodges (Sociol Methods Res 2020) to analyze the UCR age-specific arrest statistics for robbery, aggravated assaults, and homicide from 1960 to 2014. Specifically, we estimate and test two types of cohort variation: average cohort deviations and life-course dynamics.

Results

Our findings reveal varying degrees of cohort deviations at different ages. The early boomers (born between 1945 and 1954) and the late boomers (born between 1955 and 1964) demonstrate different intra-cohort dynamics of robbery arrest, and the violence epidemic cohorts’ (born between 1975 and 1984) high risks of homicide arrest appear to be driven by cohort deviations at young ages.

Conclusions

The APC-I framework introduced in this study provides new insights into the dynamic aspect of cohort effects on violent crime that have not been examined in the criminological literature. Criminological studies on cohort effects would benefit by shifting away from the problematic assumption of constant and additive cohort effects to the dynamic and interactive approach represented by the APC-I framework.

中文翻译：

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1960 年至 2014 年美国暴力犯罪模式的队列变化：年龄-时期-队列交互方法

目标

以前的犯罪学研究忽略了群体对犯罪的影响应该是特定于年龄和时间的（Ryder in Am Sociol Rev 30(6):843–861, 1965），因此假设群体效应在整个生命过程中都是相同的。当前的研究通过将队列效应建模为社会变化对不同年龄组的不同影响来解决这些局限性。通过这种与莱德的概念化密切相关的新操作化，我们研究了暴力犯罪中的队列间差异和队列内动态。

方法

我们使用 Luo 和 Hodges（Sociol Methods Res 2020）开发的年龄-时期-队列互动 (APC-I) 模型来分析 1960 年至 2014 年 UCR 针对抢劫、严重袭击和杀人的特定年龄逮捕统计数据。具体而言，我们估计并测试了两种类型的队列变异：平均队列偏差和生命历程动态。

结果

我们的研究结果揭示了不同年龄段人群存在不同程度的偏差。早期婴儿潮一代（1945-1954 年出生）和晚期婴儿潮一代（1955-1964 年出生）表现出不同的队列内部抢劫逮捕动态，暴力流行人群（1975-1984 年出生）凶杀逮捕的高风险出现受年轻群体偏差的驱动。

结论

本研究中引入的 APC-I 框架提供了关于群体效应对暴力犯罪的动态方面的新见解，这在犯罪学文献中尚未得到检验。通过从恒定和附加队列效应的有问题的假设转向以 APC-I 框架为代表的动态和交互方法，对队列效应的犯罪学研究将受益。