Objectives

What drives the consumption of illicit cigarettes? While criminology has rarely addressed the divers of the illicit cigarette markets from a theoretical and empirical perspective, studies from other disciplines point to two classes of causes. Some studies stress the impact of cigarette prices and taxes on the market for illicit cigarette; others emphasize the importance of different non-price factors, including informal economy and corruption. This study tests the influence of both price and non-price factors on the illicit cigarette market.

Methods

Multilevel growth curve analysis—three-level MLM for longitudinal measures—of the illicit cigarette market at the subnational level in the European Union. The analysis focuses on 247 regions in the EU between 2007 and 2013.

Results

This study shows that both price and non-price factors influence illicit cigarette consumption. Lower affordability of legal products, proximity to sources of cheap cigarettes, higher national income inequality, greater population density, and the levels of illicit cigarettes in neighboring regions are associated with higher illicit consumption. On the contrary, there is no empirical evidence of the role of two ‘usual suspects’: corruption and shadow economy. The paper also shows that the market for illegal cigarettes is shaped by both demand and supply factors.

Conclusions

The geographic concentration of illicit consumption and smuggling calls for the creation of anti-illicit-trade units in most densely populated areas or custom task forces at the most sensitive borders. The disproportionate relevance of illicit flows from eastern non-EU countries suggests to increase the political pressure on these source countries. Finally, given the importance of the demand side in determining the size of the illicit market, price increases should be matched with consumer awareness campaigns. These campaigns should focus on the societal consequences of purchasing illicit cigarettes together with illustrating the harm of consuming tobacco products.

中文翻译：

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解释非法香烟的消费

目标

是什么推动了非法卷烟的消费？虽然犯罪学很少从理论和经验的角度解决非法卷烟市场的多样性问题，但其他学科的研究指出了两类原因。一些研究强调了卷烟价格和税收对非法卷烟市场的影响；其他人强调不同的非价格因素的重要性，包括非正规经济和腐败。本研究测试了价格和非价格因素对非法卷烟市场的影响。

方法

欧盟国家以下一级非法卷烟市场的多级增长曲线分析——纵向测量的三级 MLM。该分析侧重于 2007 年至 2013 年间欧盟的 247 个地区。

结果

本研究表明，价格和非价格因素都会影响非法卷烟消费。合法产品的可负担性较低、靠近廉价卷烟的来源、国民收入不平等加剧、人口密度增加以及邻近地区的非法卷烟水平与非法消费增加有关。相反，没有经验证据证明两个“常见嫌疑人”的作用：腐败和影子经济。该论文还表明，非法卷烟市场是由需求和供应因素共同塑造的。

结论

非法消费和走私的地理集中要求在人口最稠密的地区建立反非法贸易单位或在最敏感的边界建立海关工作队。来自东部非欧盟国家的非法流动的不成比例相关性表明要增加对这些来源国的政治压力。最后，鉴于需求方在决定非法市场规模方面的重要性，价格上涨应与消费者意识运动相匹配。这些运动应关注购买非法卷烟的社会后果，同时说明消费烟草产品的危害。