Abstract Objectives Given the spatial nature of offender and target behavior, what do standard ecological studies of crime aggregating measures to different geographic units actually tell us? Methods This study used a simple stylized simulation model of crime patterns based on offenders, an exponential distance decay function based on Euclidean distance to capture their typical mobility patterns when committing offenses, and immobile targets. Results There were four key results. First, although a measure of targets can explain much of the variance in micro-level models, knowing where offenders live, and their typical distances traveled to offending, greatly improved the model performance. Second, accounting for the typical spatial movement of offenders before aggregating to larger units produces better results based on explanatory power. Third, the explanatory power of targets alone was much weaker when aggregating to larger units despite the fact that the simulated model of crime events was entirely based on micro processes, highlighting that variance explained is distinct from causal processes. Fourth, knowing how offenders behave in target-rich versus target-poor environment impacts the results considerably. Conclusions The findings demonstrated the consequences of a spatially explicit model of offender and target behavior for ecological studies of crime that aggregate measures to geographic units that are either at the micro-, meso-, or macro-level.

中文翻译：

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模拟空间犯罪模式：我们在犯罪的标准生态研究中学到了什么？

摘要 目标 鉴于犯罪者和目标行为的空间性质，针对不同地理单位的犯罪聚合措施的标准生态研究实际上告诉我们什么？方法本研究使用基于犯罪者的犯罪模式的简单程式化模拟模型、基于欧几里德距离的指数距离衰减函数来捕捉他们在犯罪时的典型移动模式和不动目标。结果 有四个关键结果。首先，尽管对目标的衡量可以解释微观模型中的大部分差异，但了解犯罪者住在哪里，以及他们到犯罪的典型距离，极大地提高了模型的性能。其次，根据解释力，在汇总到更大的单位之前考虑罪犯的典型空间移动会产生更好的结果。第三，尽管犯罪事件的模拟模型完全基于微观过程，但在汇总到更大的单位时，单独目标的解释力要弱得多，这突显了所解释的方差与因果过程不同。第四，了解罪犯在目标丰富的环境与目标贫乏的环境中的行为方式会显着影响结果。结论 调查结果证明了犯罪生态研究的犯罪者和目标行为的空间显式模型的后果，该模型将测量汇总到微观、中观或宏观层面的地理单位。强调解释的方差不同于因果过程。第四，了解罪犯在目标丰富的环境与目标贫乏的环境中的行为方式会显着影响结果。结论 调查结果证明了犯罪生态研究的犯罪者和目标行为的空间显式模型的后果，该模型将测量汇总到微观、中观或宏观层面的地理单位。强调解释的方差不同于因果过程。第四，了解罪犯在目标丰富的环境与目标贫乏的环境中的行为方式会显着影响结果。结论 调查结果证明了犯罪生态研究的犯罪者和目标行为的空间显式模型的后果，该模型将测量汇总到微观、中观或宏观层面的地理单位。