Since the 1970s, the northern part of the Amazonian region of Ecuador has been colonized with the support of intensive oil extraction that has opened up roads and supported the settlement of people from Outside Amazonia. These dynamics have caused important forest cuttings but also regular oil leaks and spills, contaminating both soil and water. The PASHAMAMA Model seeks to simulate these dynamics on both environment and population by examining exposure and demography over time thanks to a retro-prospective and spatially explicit agent-based approach. The aim of the present paper is to describe this model, which integrates two dynamics: (a) Oil companies build roads and oil infrastructures and generate spills, inducing leaks and pipeline ruptures affecting rivers, soils and people. This infrastructure has a probability of leaks, ruptures and other accidents that produce oil pollution affecting rivers, soils and people. (b) New colonists settled in rural areas mostly as close as possible to roads and producing food and/or cash crops. The innovative aspect of this work is the presentation of a qualitative-quantitative approach explicitly addressed to formalize interdisciplinary modeling when data contexts are almost always incomplete.

中文翻译：

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暴露历史与人口统计学的同步记录：基于代理的厄瓜多尔亚马逊殖民化和石油污染危害模型的构建

自1970年代以来，在密集的石油开采的支持下，厄瓜多尔的亚马逊河地区的北部被殖民，这开辟了道路，并支持了来自亚马逊河以外地区的人们的定居。这些动态不仅造成了重要的森林砍伐，而且引起了定期的漏油和溢油，污染了土壤和水。PASHAMAMA模型通过回顾性和空间明确的基于代理的方法，试图通过检查暴露和人口统计学来模拟环境和人口的动态变化。本文的目的是描述该模型，该模型整合了两个动态：（a）石油公司修建道路和石油基础设施并产生泄漏，导致泄漏，管道破裂影响河流，土壤和人。这个基础架构有泄漏的可能性，破裂和其他事故，产生会污染河流，土壤和人的石油污染。（b）新殖民者大多定居在农村地区，尽可能靠近道路，并生产粮食和/或经济作物。这项工作的创新之处在于提出了一种定性-定量方法，该方法明确地用于在数据上下文几乎总是不完整的情况下将跨学科建模正式化。