This study presents a proof-of-concept agent-based model (ABM) of health vulnerability to long-term exposure to airborne particulate pollution, specifically to particles less than 10 micrometres in size (PM10), in Seoul, Korea. We estimated the differential effects of individual behaviour and social class across heterogeneous space in two districts, Gwanak and Gangnam. Three scenarios of seasonal PM10 change (business as usual: BAU, exponential increase: INC, and exponential decrease: DEC) and three scenarios of resilience were investigated, comparing the vulnerability rate both between and within each district. Our first result shows that the vulnerable groups in both districts, including those aged over 65, aged under 15, and with a low education level, increased sharply after 5,000 ticks (each tick corresponding to 1 day). This implies that disparities in health outcomes can be explained by socioeconomic status (SES), especially when the group is exposed over a long period. Additionally, while the overall risk population was larger in Gangnam in the AC100 scenarios, the recovery level from resilience scenarios decreased the risk population substantially, for example from 7.7% to 0.7%. Our second finding from the local-scale analysis indicates that most Gangnam sub-districts showed more variation both spatially and in different resilience scenarios, whereas Gwanak areas showed a uniform pattern regardless of earlier prevention. The implication for policy is that, while some areas, such as Gwanak, clearly require urgent mitigating action, areas like Gangnam may show a greater response to simpler corrections, but aggregating up to the district scale may miss particular areas that are more at risk. Future work should consider other pollutants as well as more sophisticated population and pollution modelling, coupled with explicit representation of transport and more careful treatment of individual doses and the associated health responses.

中文翻译：

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基于代理的汉城地区长期颗粒物健康脆弱性评估

这项研究提出了一种基于概念验证剂的健康脆弱性模型（ABM），该模型在韩国首尔长期暴露于空气传播的颗粒物污染中，尤其是对尺寸小于10微米的颗粒物（PM10）而言。我们估计了Gwanak和Gangnam两个地区跨不同空间的个人行为和社会阶层的不同影响。调查了三个PM10季节性变化场景（照常营业：BAU，指数增长：INC和指数下降：DEC）和三种复原力场景，比较了每个区域之间和内部的脆弱性率。我们的第一个结果表明，这两个地区的弱势群体，包括65岁以上，15岁以下，文化程度较低的人，在经过5,000滴答声（每滴答声相当于1天）后急剧增加。这意味着健康结果的差异可以用社会经济地位（SES）来解释，尤其是当该人群长期处于暴露状态时。此外，尽管在AC100情景中江南的总体风险人群较大，但从复原力情景中恢复的水平大大降低了风险人群，例如从7.7％降至0.7％。我们从局部规模分析中得出的第二个结果表明，大多数江南分区在空间和不同复原力情景中均显示出更多的变化，而无论早期采取何种预防措施，瓜纳克地区均表现出统一的模式。政策含义是，尽管某些地区（例如Gwanak）显然需要采取紧急缓解措施，但江南等地区可能对更简单的纠正措施表现出更大的反应，但汇总到地区范围可能会错过风险更大的特定区域。未来的工作应考虑其他污染物，以及更复杂的人口和污染模型，并明确表示运输方式，并对各个剂量以及相关的健康应对措施进行更谨慎的处理。