ABSTRACT Sell-side fundamental analyst reports are highly valued in the financial industry and include three main quantitative components: earnings forecasts, target prices, and buy/sell recommendations. This paper examines analyst accuracy by investigating forecasts made on South African equities over the period January 2004 to June 2018. We examine the statistical performance of 12-month target price forecasts, focusing on point, directional, and term accuracy. Further analysis is then done by grouping forecasts by stock rating, analyst firm, market sector, and market regime. We also conduct a study on the persistence of forecast accuracy across analysts and across stocks over the 15-year period. Finally, in order to determine their economic significance, we categorise the equity universe into quintiles based on various analyst forecast values and backtest a range of forecast-driven systematic strategies.

中文翻译：

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评估南非的股票分析师预测

摘要卖方基本面分析师报告在金融行业具有很高的价值，包括三个主要的定量组成部分：收益预测，目标价格和买/卖建议。本文通过调查2004年1月至2018年6月期间南非股票的预测来检验分析师的准确性。我们研究12个月目标价格预测的统计绩效，重点是点，方向和期限准确性。然后，通过按股票评级，分析公司，市场部门和市场制度对预测进行分组来进行进一步分析。我们还对15年间分析师和股票之间预测准确性的持久性进行了研究。最后，为了确定其经济意义，