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What the Iran-Iraq War Tells Us about the Future of the Iran Nuclear Deal
International Security ( IF 7.179 ) Pub Date : 2017-07-01 , DOI: 10.1162/isec_a_00286
Ariane M. Tabatabai , Annie Tracy Samuel

The 1980–88 Iran-Iraq War stands as the pivotal event for Iran's national security strategy, especially as it pertains to the country's controversial nuclear program. The “imposed war,” as it is known to Iranians, caused Iran to view itself as isolated and on the defensive, striving for self-reliance and survival in what it continues to perceive as an unjust international order. The war has shaped both Iran's strategic outlook generally and its nuclear policies specifically. It was a decisive factor in determining the nature and scope of Iran's nuclear activities, as well as in Iran's approach to the international negotiations surrounding those activities, which in 2015 produced the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. Both during those talks and after the implementation of the deal began, Iranian decisionmakers regularly invoked the history and lessons of the war to construe their decisionmaking process and define their bottom lines. Yet the war and its implications for Iran's strategic culture and nuclear thinking remain understudied and misunderstood. If the implementation of the deal and a longer-term resolution of the conflict over Iran's nuclear program are to succeed, the history of the Iran-Iraq War and the vital lessons that Iran has drawn from it must be appreciated.

中文翻译:

两伊战争告诉我们伊朗核协议的未来

1980-88 年的两伊战争是伊朗国家安全战略的关键事件,特别是因为它与该国备受争议的核计划有关。伊朗人所熟知的“强加战争”使伊朗认为自己是孤立的,处于守势,在它继续认为是不公正的国际秩序中努力自力更生和生存。这场战争塑造了伊朗的总体战略前景和具体的核政策。这是确定伊朗核活动的性质和范围以及伊朗围绕这些活动开展国际谈判的方法的决定性因素,该谈判于 2015 年产生了联合全面行动计划。在这些会谈期间和交易开始实施之后,伊朗决策者经常援引战争的历史和教训来解释他们的决策过程并确定他们的底线。然而,这场战争及其对伊朗战略文化和核思想的影响仍未得到充分研究和误解。如果协议的实施和伊朗核计划冲突的长期解决要取得成功,两伊战争的历史和伊朗从中吸取的重要教训必须得到赞赏。
更新日期:2017-07-01
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