On November 19, 1977, the world watched in disbelief as Egyptian President Anwar el-Sadat visited Jerusalem. In one dramatic stroke, Sadat met with Israel's leaders, promised “no more war,” and offered Israel de facto recognition. Recently declassified archival sources provide new insight into why Sadat suddenly made all these concessions and why he chose to initiate conciliation through such a bold move. The historical evidence supports a prospect-theoretic explanation of Sadat's risk acceptance. Sadat never accepted Egypt's loss of the Sinai Peninsula but, unable to recover it either militarily or diplomatically (through U.S. mediation), he became willing to accept greater risks to recoup Egypt's territorial losses. As Sadat grew frustrated with the efforts of Jimmy Carter's administration to reconvene the Geneva Middle East Peace Conference, he sought to accelerate the peace process by abandoning multilateral diplomacy in favor of direct negotiations with Israel. He understood, however, that bilateral talks would fail given Israel's deep suspicion and mistrust of its Arab neighbors. By empathetically responding to its fears and security concerns, Sadat reasoned that he could reassure Israel of Egypt's benign intentions and remove, as he often said, the “psychological barriers” of the Arab-Israeli conflict. Such an approach might help Israel feel secure enough so that its leaders would trade land for peace.

中文翻译：

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萨达特与耶路撒冷之路：寻求和平的大胆姿态和风险接受

1977 年 11 月 19 日，世界难以置信地看着埃及总统安瓦尔·萨达特访问耶路撒冷。在一次戏剧性的打击中，萨达特会见了以色列领导人，承诺“不再发动战争”，并提供以色列事实上的承认。最近解密的档案来源为萨达特为何突然做出所有这些让步以及他为何选择通过如此大胆的举动发起和解提供了新的见解。历史证据支持对萨达特风险接受的前景理论解释。萨达特从未接受埃及失去西奈半岛，但由于无法在军事或外交上（通过美国调解）收回，他愿意接受更大的风险来弥补埃及的领土损失。随着萨达特对吉米卡特的努力感到沮丧” 为重新召开日内瓦中东和平会议，他寻求通过放弃多边外交转而与以色列直接谈判来加速和平进程。然而，他明白，鉴于以色列对其阿拉伯邻国的深切怀疑和不信任，双边谈判将失败。萨达特对埃及的恐惧和安全关切做出善解人意的反应，他认为他可以让以色列相信埃及的善意，并消除他经常说的阿以冲突的“心理障碍”。这种方法可能会帮助以色列感到足够安全，以便其领导人可以用土地换取和平。鉴于以色列对其阿拉伯邻国的深切怀疑和不信任，双边谈判将失败。萨达特对埃及的恐惧和安全关切做出善解人意的反应，他认为他可以让以色列相信埃及的善意，并消除他经常说的阿以冲突的“心理障碍”。这种方法可能会帮助以色列感到足够安全，以便其领导人可以用土地换取和平。鉴于以色列对其阿拉伯邻国的深切怀疑和不信任，双边谈判将失败。萨达特对埃及的恐惧和安全关切做出善解人意的反应，他认为他可以让以色列相信埃及的善意，并消除他经常说的阿以冲突的“心理障碍”。这种方法可能会帮助以色列感到足够安全，以便其领导人可以用土地换取和平。