International relations scholarship overwhelmingly expects that relatively rising states will threaten and challenge declining great powers. In practice, however, rising states can also cooperate with and support declining powers. What explains the rising state's choice of policy? When do rising states support or prey on declining great powers, and why do such strategies vary across time and space? The answer depends on the rising state's broader strategic calculations. All things being equal, a rising state will generally support a declining power when the latter can be used to offset threats from other great powers that can harm the rising state's security. Conversely, when using a declining state to offset such challenges is not a plausible option, the rising state is likely to pursue a predation strategy. The level of assertiveness of support or predation, meanwhile, depends on the declining power's military posture: the stronger the declining state is militarily, the less assertive the rising state tends to be. A review of the strategies adopted by two relatively rising powers, the United States and the Soviet Union, toward a declining Great Britain after 1945, and of a rising United States vis-à-vis a declining Soviet Union in the late Cold War, illustrates how this argument outperforms explanations that focus instead on the importance of economic interdependence and ideology.

中文翻译：

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伙伴关系还是掠夺？崛起的国家如何与衰落的大国抗衡

国际关系学界普遍认为，相对崛起的国家将威胁和挑战衰落的大国。然而，在实践中，崛起的国家也可以与衰落的国家合作和支持。什么解释了新兴国家的政策选择？崛起的国家何时支持或掠夺衰落的大国，为什么这种策略会随着时间和空间而变化？答案取决于新兴国家更广泛的战略考量。在所有条件相同的情况下，一个正在崛起的国家通常会支持一个正在衰落的国家，因为后者可以用来抵消来自其他大国可能损害新兴国家安全的威胁。相反，当使用衰落的国家来抵消此类挑战不是一个可行的选择时，崛起的国家可能会采取掠夺策略。与此同时，支持或掠夺的自信程度取决于衰落国家的军事态势：衰落国家的军事实力越强，崛起国家就越不自信。回顾两个相对崛起的大国，美国和苏联，在 1945 年后走向衰落的英国，以及在冷战后期崛起的美国对衰落的苏联所采取的战略，说明了这个论点如何胜过那些关注经济相互依存和意识形态重要性的解释。