In new product or service development, design alternatives are generally evaluated by subjective rating, and the one with the highest average score is often chosen. However, the public might not prefer an alternative as much as its average rating suggests. The main objective of this study is to examine the possibility of identifying a predictive function that can accurately represent the products that most people want to purchase in the context of mobile phone products. This paper introduces social welfare functions for developing predictive functions and several metrics to evaluate the functions. Two case studies were performed to determine predictive function for mobile phones. In both case studies, the Atkinson welfare function with a parameter value of 2.5 predicted subjects' purchase decisions and market sales the most. The commonly used average function was not as good as the Atkinson function.

中文翻译：

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基于社会效用和市场份额预测的设计替代评估

在新产品或服务开发中，通常通过主观评估来评估设计备选方案，并且通常会选择平均得分最高的方案。但是，公众可能不喜欢平均评分所建议的替代方法。这项研究的主要目的是检验确定预测功能的可能性，该功能可以准确地代表大多数人想要在手机产品中购买的产品。本文介绍了用于发展预测功能的社会福利功能，以及评估该功能的若干指标。进行了两个案例研究，以确定手机的预测功能。在这两个案例研究中，参数值为2.5的Atkinson福利函数预测受试者的购买决策和市场销售最多。