Background: Homelessness is an important though exceedingly difficult phenomenon to measure and understand. The most common sources of data measure homelessness only on a given night or set of consecutive nights, contact with homelessness service providers, or past homeless episodes. We therefore lack an understanding of the wider impact and nature of homelessness in society. Objective: I set out to estimate the number of people who experience homelessness in a one year period by duration and type of homelessness. Methods: A microsimulation model is used to recreate homeless episodes and impute those missed in common data sources. Model parameters are estimated using a combination of retrospective and longitudinal survey data from Australia. Administrative data from homelessness service providers are used to validate the estimates. Results: According to the results, 3.4 times as many people experienced homelessness in Australia in the 2013–2014 financial year than would have been counted on an average night. Almost one-third (32%) of episodes last for less than one month and the large majority involve ‘couch surfing’ or ‘doubling up’ with relatives or friends. Conclusions: Homelessness and housing deprivation is more prevalent though more diverse and episodic than typically measured, affecting a large cross-section of the population and likely embedded within the dynamics of poverty and deprivation. Contribution: This research provides new estimates of the extent and duration of homelessness and housing deprivation that addresses existing data limitations and with implications for understanding the nature and impact of homelessness.

中文翻译：

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估计无家可归的年率

背景：无家可归是一个重要的现象，但很难衡量和理解。最常见的数据源仅在给定的夜晚或连续的几个晚上，与无家可归服务提供者联系或过去无家可归的事件中测量无家可归。因此，我们对无家可归者对社会的广泛影响和性质缺乏了解。目标：我着手根据无家可归的持续时间和类型估算一年内无家可归的人数。方法：使用微仿真模型来重建无家可归的情节，并估算常见数据源中遗漏的情节。使用来自澳大利亚的回顾性调查和纵向调查数据的组合来估计模型参数。来自无家可归服务提供商的管理数据用于验证估计。结果：根据调查结果，2013-2014财政年度，澳大利亚无家可归者的平均人数是夜间平均人数的3.4倍。几乎有三分之一（32％）的情节持续不到一个月，而大多数情节涉及与亲戚或朋友的“沙发冲浪”或“加倍”。结论：无家可归和住房剥夺比通常所衡量的更为普遍，尽管更具多样性和突发性，影响了很大一部分人口，并有可能嵌入贫困和剥夺的动力之中。贡献：这项研究提供了关于无家可归者和住房被剥夺的程度和持续时间的新估计，解决了现有数据的局限性，并有助于理解无家可归者的性质和影响。在2013-2014财政年度，无家可归的人在澳大利亚的经历是平均夜间人数的4倍。几乎有三分之一（32％）的情节持续不到一个月，而大多数情节涉及与亲戚或朋友的“沙发冲浪”或“加倍”。结论：无家可归和住房剥夺比通常所衡量的更为普遍，尽管更具多样性和突发性，影响了很大一部分人口，并有可能嵌入贫困和剥夺的动力之中。贡献：这项研究提供了关于无家可归和住房被剥夺的程度和持续时间的新估计，解决了现有数据的局限性，并有助于理解无家可归的性质和影响。在2013-2014财政年度，无家可归的人在澳大利亚的经历是平均夜间人数的4倍。几乎有三分之一（32％）的情节持续不到一个月，而大多数情节涉及与亲戚或朋友的“沙发冲浪”或“加倍”。结论：无家可归和住房剥夺比通常所衡量的更为普遍，尽管更具多样性和突发性，影响了很大一部分人口，并有可能嵌入贫困和剥夺的动力之中。贡献：这项研究提供了关于无家可归者和住房被剥夺的程度和持续时间的新估计，解决了现有数据的局限性，并有助于理解无家可归者的性质和影响。