Background: In this paper, we introduce the digital revolution as a potential ingredient of sub-Saharan Africa’s fertility transition. Objective: We focus on the relationship between mobile phone ownership and childbearing in southern Malawi, showing that mobile phone acquisition is associated with reductions in ideal family size and lower overall parity among phone-owning women compared to their phone-less counterparts. Methods: We use nine waves of data from the Tsogolo la Thanzi (TLT) longitudinal study conducted in Balaka, Malawi, between 2009 and 2015. Results: Fixed-effects panel data models shows that mobile phone ownership is associated with smaller ideal family size and lower parity during the study period. Cox proportional hazard models suggest that mobile phones are not fundamentally associated with the timing of women’s first steps in family formation but rather with fertility trajectories on a longer time-horizon through child spacing. Furthermore, complementary cross-sectional analyses from a later survey round suggest that mobile phone ownership is associated with fertility through role modeling, preference change, and access to information. Conclusions: Mobile phone ownership is associated with fertility via role modeling, preference change, and access to information rather than through substitution effects. Contribution: Bridging the digital divide may hasten the fertility transition in sub-Saharan Africa.

中文翻译：

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手机，数字不平等和生育率：马拉维的纵向证据

背景：在本文中，我们介绍了数字革命，将其作为撒哈拉以南非洲生育率转型的潜在因素。目的：我们着眼于马拉维南部手机拥有与生育之间的关系，表明与没有手机的女性相比，购买手机与理想家庭规模的减少和拥有手机的女性的平均收入较低有关。方法：我们使用了从2009年至2015年在马拉维巴拉卡（Balaka）进行的Tsogolo la Thanzi（TLT）纵向研究的九波数据。结果：固定效应面板数据模型显示，手机拥有量与较小的理想家庭人数相关，并且在研究期间的平价较低。考克斯比例风险模型表明，移动电话从根本上与妇女开始形成家庭的第一步的时间无关，而与生育间隔较长的生育轨迹有关。此外，来自后续调查的补充性横截面分析表明，通过角色建模，偏好更改和信息访问，手机拥有权与生育能力有关。结论：移动电话的拥有权通过角色建模，偏好更改和信息访问而不是通过替代效应与生育能力相关。贡献：弥合数字鸿沟可能会加快撒哈拉以南非洲地区的生育率过渡。后续调查回合的补充性横断面分析表明，通过角色建模，偏好更改和信息访问，手机拥有率与生育能力有关。结论：手机所有权是通过角色建模，偏好更改和信息访问而不是通过替代效应与生育能力相关的。贡献：弥合数字鸿沟可能会加快撒哈拉以南非洲地区的生育率过渡。后续调查回合的补充性横断面分析表明，通过角色建模，偏好更改和信息访问，手机拥有率与生育能力有关。结论：移动电话的拥有权通过角色建模，偏好更改和信息访问而不是通过替代效应与生育能力相关。贡献：弥合数字鸿沟可能会加快撒哈拉以南非洲地区的生育率过渡。