Background: People’s demographic decision-making is embedded in regional cultural contexts that include regional patterns of family organization called family systems. Although previous research has shown that family systems explain regional variation in fertility, it has focused mainly on historical or developing societies. Processes of modernization have led to substantial changes in family structures and values and to an overhaul of the traditional family formation system in most developed countries. Therefore, questions arise regarding whether family systems also influence fertility in contemporary developed societies. Objective: The paper addresses the research question by examining the association between regional patterns of spatial proximity between kin and (1) the age at first birth, (2) the length of the interbirth interval between the first and second child, and (3) the length of the interbirth interval between the second and third child. In this context, the paper controls for changes in the associations occurring with age. Methods: The paper derives regional indicators of spatial proximity between kin for 54 regions in nine European countries using the first two waves of the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) (N = 38,484). The paper studies the association between these regional indicators and fertility using individual-level data from the Generations and Gender Survey (GGS) (N = 58,689). The analysis relies on a set of discrete-time hazard models. Results: The results support the idea that regional patterns of family organization help to explain fertility in contemporary developed societies. However, the results are more complex than expected because the association between spatial proximity and fertility is time-varying. For example, on average, closer proximity to kin increases the likelihood of having a second child during the first three years after the first child is born. Future research needs to replicate the results and investigate the underlying mechanisms more closely to better understand how and when patterns of family organization impact fertility. Contribution: The results demonstrate that the family system indicators impact on the timing and spacing of bearing children. These effects vary over people’s life course and among birth cohorts. In this context, the results suggest that regions ranging in between those with ‘strong’ and ‘weak’ kin ties are most vulnerable to persistent low fertility.

中文翻译：

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家庭制度以及有子女的时间和间隔

背景：人们的人口决策是嵌入区域文化环境中的，包括区域性家庭组织模式（称为家庭系统）。尽管以前的研究表明，家庭制度可以解释生育率的区域差异，但它主要集中在历史或发展中社会。现代化进程导致大多数发达国家的家庭结构和价值观发生重大变化，并彻底改革了传统的家庭形成体系。因此，人们对家庭制度是否也影响当代发达社会的生育能力提出了疑问。目的：通过研究亲属之间的空间接近性区域模式与（1）初生年龄之间的关联来解决该研究问题 （2）第一个和第二个孩子之间的生育间隔的长度，以及（3）第二个和第三个孩子之间的生育间隔的长度。在这种情况下，本文控制着随着年龄而发生的联想变化。方法：本文使用欧洲卫生，老龄化和退休调查（SHARE）的前两次浪潮（N = 38,484）得出了九个欧洲国家中54个地区亲属之间空间接近的区域性指标。该论文使用了世代和性别调查（GGS）（N = 58,689）的个人水平数据，研究了这些区域指标与生育率之间的关联。该分析依赖于一组离散时间危害模型。结果：结果支持这样的观点，即家庭组织的区域模式有助于解释当代发达社会的生育力。但是，结果比预期的更为复杂，因为空间邻近性与肥力之间的关联是随时间变化的。例如，平均而言，更接近亲戚会增加在第一个孩子出生后的头三年内生第二个孩子的可能性。未来的研究需要复制结果并更深入地调查潜在机制，以更好地了解家庭组织的模式如何以及何时影响生育。贡献：结果表明，家庭系统指标对有生育子女的时间和间隔产生影响。这些影响在人们的生活历程和出生队列中有所不同。在这种情况下，结果表明，处于“强”和“弱”亲戚关系之间的地区最容易受到持续低生育力的影响。结果比预期的更为复杂，因为空间邻近性与肥力之间的关联是随时间变化的。例如，平均而言，更接近亲戚会增加在第一个孩子出生后的头三年内生第二个孩子的可能性。未来的研究需要复制结果并更深入地调查潜在机制，以更好地了解家庭组织的模式如何以及何时影响生育。贡献：结果表明，家庭系统指标对有生育子女的时间和间隔产生影响。这些影响在人们的生活历程和出生队列中有所不同。在这种情况下，结果表明，处于“强”和“弱”亲戚关系之间的地区最容易受到持续低生育力的影响。结果比预期的更为复杂，因为空间邻近性与肥力之间的关联是随时间变化的。例如，平均而言，更接近亲戚会增加在第一个孩子出生后的头三年内生第二个孩子的可能性。未来的研究需要复制结果并更深入地调查潜在机制，以更好地了解家庭组织的模式如何以及何时影响生育。贡献：结果表明，家庭系统指标对有生育子女的时间和间隔产生影响。这些影响在人们的生活历程和出生队列中有所不同。在这种情况下，结果表明，处于“强”和“弱”亲戚关系之间的地区最容易受到持续低生育力的影响。