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Visualizing fertility trends for 45 countries using composite lattice plots
Demographic Research ( IF 2.1 ) Pub Date : 2020-04-01 , DOI: 10.4054/demres.2020.42.23
Serena Pattaro , Laura Vanderbloemen , Jon Minton

Background: The Human Fertility Database (HFD) and Human Fertility Collection (HFC) provide disaggregated data on age-specific fertility rates for 45 countries. These sources offer the opportunity to learn about the development of different pathways of transition to low fertility both within and between countries. Objective: The aim of this paper is to use composite fertility lattice plots, which combine information from different visualization techniques of the Lexis surface, namely level plots and contour plots, to explore changes in age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) and the implied (period-based) cumulative cohort fertility rates (cumulative pseudo cohort fertility rates, CPCFRs) across countries and geographic regions. Methods: Through key examples we introduce a new refinement of the Lexis surface, combining level plots, which use colour/shade to indicate ASFRs, and contour lines to indicate fertility milestones for given cohorts (CPCFRs). We have also developed a web-based app to allow researchers to produce their own fertility Lexis surfaces. Results: Results show that once countries have fallen below a replacement fertility level, they tend to not return to it. Exceptions are Norway and the United States, which saw rising fertility rates for cohorts born after the 1950s and late 1960s respectively. The age-specific fertility trends, as well as broader political and socioeconomic conditions, are very different in these countries, suggesting different paths by which replacement fertility rates might be achieved. Contribution: Complex data visualizations show, in an intuitive way, how ASFRs are related to successive cohorts’ fertility milestones (CPCFRs). Combining this information enables us to explore differences between countries and can make an important contribution to comparative fertility research.

中文翻译:

使用复合格子图可视化45个国家的生育率趋势

背景:人类生育力数据库(HFD)和人类生育力收集(HFC)提供了45个国家特定年龄的生育率分类数据。这些资源为了解国家内部和国家之间向低生育率过渡的不同途径的发展提供了机会。目的:本文旨在使用综合生育力格子图,结合来自Lexis表面不同可视化技术的信息(即水平图和等高线图),探索特定年龄的生育率(ASFR)和隐含的生育率(ASFR)的变化。各个国家和地区的累积同期队列出生率(累积的伪同期队列生育率,CPCFR)。方法:通过关键示例,我们结合水平面图,对Lexis曲面进行了新的改进,其中使用颜色/阴影指示ASFR,并使用轮廓线指示给定群组(CPCFR)的生育里程碑。我们还开发了一个基于Web的应用程序,以使研究人员能够生产自己的肥力Lexis表面。结果:结果表明,一旦国家/地区的人口出生率降至替代生育率以下,他们往往就不会恢复原状。挪威和美国除外,这两个国家的出生率分别在1950年代和1960年代末期上升。在这些国家中,特定年龄段的生育率趋势以及更广泛的政治和社会经济状况存在很大差异,这表明可以实现替代生育率的途径不同。贡献:复杂的数据可视化以直观的方式显示了ASFR与连续队列的生育里程碑(CPCFR)的关系。
更新日期:2020-04-01
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