A variety of new technologies, ranging from broad enabling technologies to specific weapon systems, may threaten or enhance strategic stability. In this essay, I analyze a technology's potential to significantly affect stability along three axes: the pace of advances in, and diffusion of, this technology; the technology's implications for deterrence and defense; and the technology's potential for direct impact on crisis decision-making. I apply this framework to examples including hypersonic weapons, antisatellite weapons, artificial intelligence, and persistent overhead monitoring. Formal arms control to contain dangers posed by some of these seems technically possible, though currently politically difficult to achieve. Others, particularly enabling technologies, resist arms control based on effective verification. The major powers will therefore instead have to find other ways to cope with these technologies and their implications. These options should include exchanges with potential adversaries so that pathways to nuclear escalation, and possible mitigating steps, can be identified and discussed.

中文翻译：

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新技术与战略稳定性

从广泛的使能技术到特定的武器系统，各种各样的新技术都可能威胁或增强战略稳定性。在本文中，我分析了一项技术可能在三个方面显着影响稳定性的潜力：该技术的发展步伐和扩散；以及 该技术对威慑和防御的影响；以及该技术直接影响危机决策的潜力。我将此框架应用于包括超音速武器，反卫星武器，人工智能和持续开销监控在内的示例。正式的军备控制以遏制其中某些危险在技术上是可能的，尽管目前在政治上难以实现。其他一些，特别是使能技术，则拒绝基于有效验证的军备控制。因此，大国将不得不寻找其他方式来应对这些技术及其影响。这些选择应包括与潜在对手的交流，以便确定和讨论通往核升级的途径以及可能的缓解步骤。