Weather conditions have long been considered as a major factor that affects voter turnout. Does inclement weather suppress voter turnout? If so, which party would benefit from lower voter turnout caused by bad weather conditions? Since voter turnout has an impact on electoral outcomes in many countries, including Korea, addressing these questions is essential for better understanding of voter turnout and electoral outcomes. This paper examines the weather-turnout theory using 146 by-elections held in Korea between 1995 and 1999. The results show that, all else being constant, inclement weather reduces voter turnout, implying that it may benefit right-wing or major parties rather than left-wing or minor parties through its negative impact on voter turnout.

中文翻译：

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1995-1999 年韩国的天气、选民投票率和党派影响

长期以来，天气状况一直被认为是影响选民投票率的主要因素。恶劣的天气会抑制选民投票率吗？如果是这样，哪个政党将受益于恶劣天气条件导致的较低投票率？由于选民投票率对包括韩国在内的许多国家的选举结果产生影响，因此解决这些问题对于更好地了解选民投票率和选举结果至关重要。本文使用 1995 年至 1999 年在韩国举行的 146 次补选检验了天气投票率理论。结果表明，在其他条件不变的情况下，恶劣的天气会降低选民投票率，这意味着它可能有利于右翼或主要政党，而不是左翼或小党派对选民投票率的负面影响。