Our present era of high‐energy modernity will likely end over the course of the 21^st century, as fossil hydrocarbons wane and new energy technologies fail to compensate. Long‐term trends of urbanization will reverse and a migration back to the countryside to regions of high biocapacity will ensue during the coming decades of energy descent. Food will become a central and organizing concern for de‐industrializing populations, and key concepts and general methods to secure food supplies using less mechanization and with few outside inputs are presented. Given that high social complexity is institutionalized, with system identities locked‐in, we should not expect a planned response to declining net energy. Instead, the so‐called Great Simplification will unfold through a series of crises that force reorganization and alter belief systems. Resilience science suggests a role for promoting system transformability along more benign paths and into social forms that are more frugal.

中文翻译：

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未来是农村：社会对能源下降的适应

我们目前的高能量现代的时代将在21的过程中有可能最终^ST世纪以来，由于化石碳氢化合物的衰落和新能源技术无法弥补。在未来几十年的能源下降中，城市化的长期趋势将发生逆转，并且将发生从农村向高生物承载力地区的迁移。粮食将成为使人口工业化的主要问题和组织问题，并提出了使用较少机械化和很少外部投入来确保粮食供应的关键概念和一般方法。鉴于高度的社会复杂性已经制度化，并且系统身份处于锁定状态，我们不应该期望对下降的净能源有计划的回应。取而代之的是，所谓的“大简化”将通过一系列危机进行，这些危机迫使重组和改变信仰体系。