The contribution of this article is to assess the effect of oil prices have on the trade balance in the framework of bilateral commodity trade data between Korea and each of the four ASEAN member countries—Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand. To examine this subject thoroughly, we first assume the effects of oil price changes to be symmetric and apply the linear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) method to the subject. We find that the price of crude oil indeed has an important role in affecting Korea's trade balance with those four ASEAN economies in both the long‐ and short‐run. We then separate oil price hikes from oil price plunges and implement the nonlinear ARDL method to reveal that there is evidence that changes in oil prices appear to have asymmetric effects on the trade balance for certain products in the long‐ and short‐run.

中文翻译：

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石油价格变动真的对贸易平衡有影响吗？韩国-东盟商品贸易数据的证据

本文的目的是在韩国与东盟四个成员国（印度尼西亚，马来西亚，新加坡和泰国）之间的双边商品贸易数据框架内评估油价对贸易平衡的影响。为了彻底检查该主题，我们首先假设油价变化的影响是对称的，然后将线性自回归分布滞后（ARDL）方法应用于该主题。我们发现，从长远来看，原油价格的确对影响韩国与这四个东盟经济体的贸易平衡具有重要作用。