Motivated by the historically tense geopolitical situation in Southeast Asia, the paper simulates the potential closure of key maritime waterways in the region to predict the impact on trade and welfare. The authors generate initial (unobstructed) and counterfactual (rerouted) least-cost maritime paths between trading countries, and use the distances of these routes in a workhorse model of international trade to estimate welfare effects. They find heterogeneous and economically significant reductions in real GDP, and show the magnitude of welfare loss is directly correlated with military spending as a proportion of GDP, suggesting nations may be responding to economic security threats posed by such potential conflicts.

受东南亚历史上紧张的地缘政治局势的影响，本文模拟了该地区主要海上水道的潜在关闭，以预测对贸易和福利的影响。作者在贸易国之间生成了初始（通畅）和反事实（改道）的成本最低的海上路径，并在国际贸易的主力模型中使用这些路径的距离来估计福利影响。他们发现实际GDP的减少在经济上有不同程度的降低，并且表明福利损失的程度与军事支出在GDP中的比例直接相关，这表明各国可能正在应对此类潜在冲突所构成的经济安全威胁。