International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction ( IF 4.2 ) Pub Date : 2021-01-06 , DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2021.102035 Samuel Babatunde Agbola , Olusegun Joseph Falola
Fire has been accepted in the literature as a major hazard threatening urban livelihood. However, very few research focused on the temporal analysis of fire events in cities of developing countries. This paper explores trends in fire occurrence in Ibadan and investigated the association of fire events with seasons, calendar events and weather conditions. The longitudinal study relied on a 12-year fire record obtained from the Oyo State Fire Service (OSFS) and analysed using descriptive, inferential and predictive techniques. The results show that incidents of fire disaster are more likely to increase in the next five years (k = 4.171). Incidents of fire disasters were more pronounced during festive seasons and school holidays. There was significant variation between average weather conditions and number of fire cases (r = 0.654; P < 0.05 and r = −0.703; P < 0.05 for monthly maximum temperature and monthly rainfall, respectively). There was significant locational and temporal variability in the distribution of all fires types. Types of fire disasters varied spatially across local government areas (P < 0.05). The city core dominated building fire cases (71.7%). Population density significantly predicted the number and value of property loss (r = 0.618; r2 = 0.382; P = 0.043). Property lost to building fires showed weak seasonal periodicity (t = −1.187; P = 0.235). It is suggested that these findings should guide fire service operations in selecting locations that need more fire stations and in making decisions concerning the period when safety awareness and emergency response are needed most.