Prediction of the area of possible inundation is critical for debris-flow hazard management. This is typically done with inundation modeling programs, but many of these models are not specific to predict post-wildfire debris flows, a particularly dangerous subset. For this research, deposition patterns from flows triggered by the 2003 Christmas Day storm in areas burned by the Old and Grand Prix Fires in southern California were used to develop runout parameters specific to post-wildfire debris flows that can be incorporated into the LAHARZ inundation modeling program. Detailed mapping using aerial photographs, confirmed by field mapping, was used to document the cross-sectional area of the debris flows in drainages (A), the planimetric area of the flows (B), the volume of the flows (V), and the location of onset of deposition. These data were used to modify the power law equations required by the model, where the equations A = 0.26 V^0.40 and B = 7.4 V^0.81 are the best estimates for the post-wildfire data. These are statistically the 50th percentile values. More conservative values are also calculated as: A = 0.54 V^0.40 (80^% prediction interval), A = 0.82 V^0.40 (95% prediction interval), B = 32 V^0.81 (80^% prediction interval), and B = 73 V^0.81 (95% prediction interval). These values are expected to apply post-wildfire debris flows in the volume range of 10² to 10⁵ m³ in the mountain ranges in Southern California.

预测可能淹没的区域对于泥石流危害管理至关重要。通常使用淹没建模程序来完成此操作，但是其中许多模型并非专门用于预测野火后的泥石流（这是特别危险的子集）。在这项研究中，使用了2003年圣诞节风暴引发的流量沉积模式，该模式由加利福尼亚南部的Old and Grand Prix Fires烧成，用于开发针对野火后泥石流的跳动参数，这些参数可以纳入LAHARZ淹没模型中程序。通过实地测绘确认的使用航拍照片的详细测绘用于记录排水沟中泥石流的横截面面积（A），泥石流的平面面积（B），泥石流体积（V）和沉积开始的位置。野火后数据的最佳估计值为^0.40，B = 7.4 V ^0.81。从统计上讲，这是第50个百分位值。还可以计算出更保守的值：A = 0.54 V ^0.40（80 ^％的预测间隔），A = 0.82 V ^0.40（95％的预测间隔），B = 32 V ^0.81（80 ^％的预测间隔）和B = 73 V ^0.81（95％的预测间隔）。预计这些值将适用于南加州山脉范围内10 ²至10 ⁵ m ³范围内的野火后泥石流。