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Individual heterogeneity affects the outcome of small mammal pest eradication
Theoretical Ecology ( IF 1.6 ) Pub Date : 2021-01-06 , DOI: 10.1007/s12080-020-00491-6
Giorgia Vattiato , Michael J. Plank , Alex James , Rachelle N. Binny

1. The eradication of invasive small mammal pests is a challenging undertaking, but is needed in many areas of the world to preserve biodiversity. Trapping and poisonous baits are some of the most widespread tools for pest control. Most of the models used to make predictions and to design effective trapping protocols assume that pest populations are behaviourally homogeneous and, in particular, that all individuals react the same way when confronted with a trap or bait. In this study, we analyse the effect of consistent variations in trappability across a pest population on the success of eradication and the time taken to be confident that eradication has occurred. 2. We present results obtained using both a simple, stochastic, individual-based model, and an analytical approach. Simulations were run using two different modelling techniques, one where individuals display consistent daily behaviour towards traps and one with variable daily behaviour. We then show how to use our model to detect and measure heterogeneity in a population using capture data. 3. Results show that neglecting individual heterogeneity in trappability leads to overly optimistic predictions for the efficacy of eradications operations. The presence of even a small proportion of relatively trap-shy individuals is shown to make eradication much more difficult 4. In this study we reveal how individual heterogeneity can affect capture probabilities and the outcome of pest eradications. Such information contributes towards improved pest management designs, needed by ecological operations making use of trapping systems.



中文翻译:

个体异质性影响消灭小型哺乳动物害虫的结果

1.消除侵入性的小型哺乳动物害虫是一项艰巨的任务,但在世界许多地区都需要维护生物多样性。诱捕和毒饵是控制害虫最广泛的工具。用于进行预测和设计有效诱捕方案的大多数模型都假设有害生物种群在行为上是同质的,尤其是当所有个体面对诱捕器或诱饵时,其反应都是相同的。在这项研究中,我们分析了整个有害生物种群中可捕获性的持续变化对根除成功的影响以及确定根除已经发生所花费的时间。2.我们介绍使用简单,随机,基于个体的模型和分析方法获得的结果。使用两种不同的建模技术进行了模拟,一种是个人对陷阱表现出一致的日常行为,另一种则具有日常行为变化。然后,我们展示了如何使用我们的模型使用捕获数据来检测和测量种群中的异质性。3.结果表明,在捕获能力方面忽略个体异质性会导致对根除行动的效果过于乐观。事实表明,即使是一小部分相对较害羞的个体的存在也使根除更加困难。4.在这项研究中,我们揭示了个体异质性如何影响捕获概率和根除害虫的结果。这些信息有助于改进利用生态系统利用捕集系统进行的有害生物管理设计。

更新日期:2021-01-06
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