Recent studies on fiscal policy use cross-sectional data and estimate local fiscal multipliers along with spillovers. This paper estimates local fiscal multipliers with spillovers using Japanese prefectural data comparable with the national accounts. We estimate the local fiscal multiplier on output to be 1.7 at the regional level. We decompose the regional fiscal multiplier into the prefectural fiscal multiplier and the region-wide effect. Converting the latter component into the spillover, we find that the spillover is positive and small in size. We also decompose the regional fiscal multiplier on output into multipliers on the expenditure components. Our estimates suggest that there are crowding-in effects of government spending on consumption and investment. Moreover, we find that the regional fiscal multiplier on absorption exceeds 2.0 and that the spillover to absorption is considerable in contrast to the spillover to output.

最近对财政政策的研究使用了横截面数据，并估计了当地财政乘数以及溢出效应。本文使用可与日本国民账户相媲美的日本府县数据估算具有溢出效应的地方财政乘数。我们估计，区域一级的地方财政产出乘数为1.7。我们将区域财政乘数分解为县财政乘数和区域效应。将后一部分转换为溢出，我们发现溢出是正的并且规模很小。我们还将区域财政乘数分解为支出乘数。我们的估计表明，政府支出对消费和投资产生了挤入效应。此外，我们发现区域吸收的财政乘数超过2。