The Coffee Berry Borer (CBB) is the main pest that affects coffee crops around the world, causing major economic losses and diminishing beverage quality. A mathematical model is formulated, from the perspective of the Adaptive Dynamics (AD) framework, to describe the evolution of coffee quality as a continuous differentiating attribute related to the mix of healthy and bored coffee. The study involves three stages: first, an agro-ecological model describes coffee production and growth of the CBB population prior to the processing of different qualities of coffee; second, a market model describes the competition between different blends of standard and special coffee; finally, the AD canonical equation is derived to describe the evolution of coffee quality resulting from innovations in the quality attribute filtered by market competition. Interestingly, AD allows to derive conditions for the emergence of diversity, i.e., the establishment of a second type of coffee that coexists with the former and, similarly, for subsequent branching in the quality attributes. The full model provides insights on the impact of CBB control strategies on the long-term market structure. Specifically, a strong control aimed at increasing coffee quality may impoverish the market diversity, independently of the consumers’ budget limitations and corresponding preference for either high or low quality.

Coffee Berry Borer（CBB）是影响世界各地咖啡作物的主要害虫，造成重大的经济损失和饮料质量下降。从自适应动力学（AD）框架的角度出发，建立了数学模型，以描述咖啡质量的演变，将其作为与健康和无聊咖啡的混合有关的连续区分属性。该研究涉及三个阶段：首先，一种农业生态模型描述了在加工不同质量的咖啡之前咖啡的生产和CBB人群的生长；第二，市场模型描述了标准和特殊咖啡混合物之间的竞争。最后，推导AD规范方程来描述由于市场竞争而过滤掉的质量属性的创新所导致的咖啡质量的演变。有趣的是，AD允许推导产生多样性的条件，即建立与前者共存的第二种咖啡，并类似地在质量属性中进行后续分支。完整的模型提供了有关CBB控制策略对长期市场结构影响的见解。具体而言，旨在提高咖啡品质的强有力控制可能会削弱市场多样性，而与消费者的预算限制以及对高品质或低品质的相应偏爱无关。完整的模型提供了有关CBB控制策略对长期市场结构影响的见解。具体而言，旨在提高咖啡品质的强有力控制可能会削弱市场多样性，而与消费者的预算限制以及对高品质或低品质的相应偏爱无关。完整的模型提供了有关CBB控制策略对长期市场结构影响的见解。具体而言，旨在提高咖啡品质的强有力控制可能会削弱市场多样性，而与消费者的预算限制以及对高品质或低品质的相应偏爱无关。