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Shared socioeconomic pathways for climate change research in Finland: co-developing extended SSP narratives for agriculture
Regional Environmental Change ( IF 3.4 ) Pub Date : 2021-01-05 , DOI: 10.1007/s10113-020-01734-2
Heikki S. Lehtonen , Jyrki Aakkula , Stefan Fronzek , Janne Helin , Mikael Hildén , Suvi Huttunen , Minna Kaljonen , Jyrki Niemi , Taru Palosuo , Nina Pirttioja , Pasi Rikkonen , Vilja Varho , Timothy R. Carter

Shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), developed at global scale, comprise narrative descriptions and quantifications of future world developments that are intended for climate change scenario analysis. However, their extension to national and regional scales can be challenging. Here, we present SSP narratives co-developed with stakeholders for the agriculture and food sector in Finland. These are derived from intensive discussions at a workshop attended by approximately 39 participants offering a range of sectoral perspectives. Using general background descriptions of the SSPs for Europe, facilitated discussions were held in parallel for each of four SSPs reflecting very different contexts for the development of the sector up to 2050 and beyond. Discussions focused on five themes from the perspectives of consumers, producers and policy-makers, included a joint final session and allowed for post-workshop feedback. Results reflect careful sector-based, national-level interpretations of the global SSPs from which we have constructed consensus narratives. Our results also show important critical remarks and minority viewpoints. Interesting features of the Finnish narratives compared to the global SSP narratives include greater emphasis on environmental quality; significant land abandonment in SSPs with reduced livestock production and increased plant-based diets; continued need for some farm subsidies across all SSPs and opportunities for diversifying domestic production under scenarios of restricted trade. Our results can contribute to the development of more detailed national long-term scenarios for food and agriculture that are both relevant for local stakeholders and researchers as well as being consistent with global scenarios being applied internationally.



中文翻译:

芬兰进行气候变化研究的共同社会经济途径:共同开发农业的SSP扩展叙述

在全球范围内开发的共享社会经济途径(SSP)包括对未来世界发展的叙述性描述和量化,旨在进行气候变化情景分析。但是,将其扩展到国家和区域范围可能是一个挑战。在这里,我们介绍了与利益相关者共同开发的芬兰农业和食品领域的SSP叙述。这些来自研讨会上的密集讨论,约有39名与会者参加了研讨会,提出了多种行业观点。使用对欧洲SSP的一般背景描述,同时针对四个SSP进行了便利的讨论,反映了直至2050年及以后该行业发展的不同情况。从消费者,生产者和政策制定者的角度讨论了五个主题,包括最后的联合会议,并允许车间后的反馈。结果反映了对全球SSP的基于部门的,国家层面的仔细解释,由此我们构建了共识性叙述。我们的结果还显示出重要的批判性言论和少数派观点。与全球SSP叙事相比,芬兰叙事的有趣特征包括更加注重环境质量;SSP中大量土地被遗弃,导致牲畜产量减少和植物性饮食增加;持续需要所有SSP的一些农场补贴以及在贸易受限的情况下实现国内生产多样化的机会。

更新日期:2021-01-05
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