This paper sets out to answer two questions. What effect does installing smoke alarms have on reported fires and casualties for the “average” household? How much of an effect would increasing smoke alarm utilization have on the total number of fires and casualties in the United States? The installation of smoke alarms in homes without them will reduce the expected number of fires reported from a (formerly) non-smoke-alarm residence by a factor of 3.5 to 5 (a 70 to 80% reduction) and reduces the number of expected casualties by a factor of 2.5 to 3.5 (a 60 to 70% reduction). Unexpectedly, the number of casualties per reported fire is lower for non-smoke-alarm households compared to smoke-alarm households. This could be due to changes in people’s behavior when they have a smoke alarm in the home or because the less dangerous fires are preferentially extinguished when smoke alarms are present. If smoke alarms were installed in all residences, the number of fires reported to the fire department could be reduced by 25% or more. More realistically, each percent increase in smoke alarm penetration reduces reported fires by more than 2.6%. There is evidence that the number of homes with smoke alarms are lower than current estimates that rely on telephone-only survey interviews. The actual smoke alarm usage is probably below 92%. It seems likely that this is due to a correlation between phone presence and smoke alarm utilization.

本文着手回答两个问题。安装烟雾报警器对“普通”家庭的火灾和人员伤亡有什么影响？在美国，提高烟雾报警器使用率将对火灾和人员伤亡总数产生多大影响？在没有烟雾报警器的房屋中安装烟雾报警器将使（以前）非烟雾报警住宅报告的预期火灾次数减少3.5至5倍（减少70％至80％），并减少预期伤亡人数降低了2.5到3.5倍（降低了60到70％）。出乎意料的是，与烟雾警报家庭相比，非烟雾警报家庭每次报告的火灾造成的伤亡人数要少。这可能是由于人们在家中安装了烟雾报警器时的行为发生了变化，或者是由于存在烟雾报警器时优先扑灭了危险较小的火灾。如果在所有住宅中都安装了烟雾报警器，则向消防部门报告的火灾次数可减少25％或更多。更现实的是，烟雾报警器渗透率每提高百分之一，可将报告的火灾减少超过2.6％。有证据表明，带有烟雾报警器的房屋数量低于目前仅依靠电话进行的调查访谈的估计数。实际烟雾报警器的使用率可能低于92％。这似乎是由于电话存在与烟雾报警器使用之间的相关性所致。向消防部门报告的火灾次数可减少25％或更多。更现实的是，烟雾报警器渗透率每提高百分之一，可将报告的火灾减少超过2.6％。有证据表明，装有烟雾报警器的房屋数量低于目前仅依靠电话进行的调查采访的估计数。实际烟雾报警器的使用率可能低于92％。这似乎是由于电话存在与烟雾报警器使用之间的相关性所致。向消防部门报告的火灾次数可减少25％或更多。更现实的是，烟雾报警器渗透率每提高百分之一，可将报告的火灾减少超过2.6％。有证据表明，带有烟雾报警器的房屋数量低于目前仅依靠电话进行的调查访谈的估计数。实际烟雾报警器的使用率可能低于92％。这似乎是由于电话存在与烟雾报警器使用之间的相关性所致。