This paper studies the scheduling problem for the manufacturing systems with uncertain job duration, and the possibility of planning due-date quotations for critical manufacturing tasks given a fixed contingency budget. We propose a due-date quotation model to measure the risk of delay in the manufacturing process in terms of the allocated contingency budget. The risk of delay is measured in the same unit as its corresponding milestone factor such that the decision makers could directly visualize and quantify the level of risks in units of hours or days. In addition, the proposed model possesses various great properties required by a convex risk measure and it represents a minimized certainty equivalent of the overall expected risk in achieving the manufacturing due-dates. Extensive computational experiments are conducted to evaluate the model performance. The results show that our proposed model, compared to various existing methods, provides a much more balanced performance in terms of success rate of due-date achievement, due-date quotation shortfall, as well as, robustness against uncertainties. The practical applicability of the proposed models are also tested with the job scheduling problem in a real stamping industry application.

中文翻译：

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不确定条件下制造系统调度的到期报价模型

本文研究了具有不确定工作持续时间的制造系统的调度问题，以及在给定应急预算的情况下为关键制造任务计划截止日期报价的可能性。我们提出了一个截止日期报价模型，以根据分配的应急预算来衡量制造过程中的延迟风险。延迟风险与其对应的里程碑因素以相同的单位衡量，以便决策者可以以小时或天为单位直接可视化和量化风险水平。此外，所提出的模型具有凸风险度量所需的各种重要属性，并且它代表了实现制造到期日的总体预期风险的最小确定性等价物。进行了广泛的计算实验来评估模型性能。结果表明，与各种现有方法相比，我们提出的模型在到期日成功率、到期日报价不足以及对不确定性的鲁棒性方面提供了更加平衡的性能。所提出模型的实际适用性还通过实际冲压行业应用中的作业调度问题进行了测试。