The effect of atmospheric circulation on monthly, seasonal and annual mean surface air temperature trends in the years 1979–2018 is studied by applying a trajectory-based method on the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ERA5 reanalysis data. To the extent that the method captures the effects of atmospheric circulation, the results suggest that circulation trends only had a minor impact on observed annual mean temperature trends in most areas. Exceptions include, for example, a decrease in annual mean warming by about 1 °C in western Siberia, and increased warming in central Europe and the Arctic Ocean. However, the effect of circulation trends on seasonal and particularly monthly temperature trends is more substantial. Subtracting the effect of circulation changes from the ERA5 temperature trends leaves residual trends with a smoother annual cycle than the original trends. The residual monthly mean temperature trends also tend to agree better with the multi-model mean temperature trends from models in the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) than the original ERA5 trends do, with a 42% decrease in the mean square difference over the global land area. However, the corresponding decrease in the mean square difference of the annual mean temperature trends is only 6%.

通过在欧洲中距离天气预报中心ERA5重新分析数据中应用基于轨迹的方法，研究了1979-2018年大气环流对月度，季节和年度平均地面气温趋势的影响。就该方法捕获了大气环流的影响而言，结果表明，环流趋势仅对大多数地区的年平均温度趋势产生了较小的影响。例外情况包括，例如西伯利亚西部的年平均变暖下降约1°C，中欧和北冰洋的变暖增加。但是，循环趋势对季节性，尤其是每月温度趋势的影响更大。从ERA5温度趋势减去循环变化的影响后，剩余趋势的年循环比原始趋势更平滑。第五个月耦合模型比较项目（CMIP5）中的剩余月平均温度趋势也趋向于与多模型平均温度趋势更好地吻合，比原始ERA5趋势更好，与整个ERA5趋势相比，均方差降低了42％。全球土地面积。但是，年平均温度趋势的均方差的相应减少仅为6％。在全球土地面积上的均方差降低了42％。但是，年平均温度趋势的均方差的相应减少仅为6％。在全球土地面积上的均方差降低了42％。但是，年平均温度趋势的均方差的相应减少仅为6％。