当前位置: X-MOL 学术Acta Geophys. › 论文详情
Our official English website, www.x-mol.net, welcomes your feedback! (Note: you will need to create a separate account there.)
Extreme precipitation indices trend assessment over Thrace region, Turkey
Acta Geophysica ( IF 2.0 ) Pub Date : 2021-01-04 , DOI: 10.1007/s11600-020-00531-z
Sertac Oruc , Emrah Yalcin

The frequency and the severity of extreme weather events are increasing globally and will continue to do so in the coming decades as a consequence of our changing climate. Understanding the characteristics of these events is crucial due to their significant negative impacts on social, physical and economic environments. In this study, 14 extreme rainfall indices are determined and examined in terms of trends and statistical characteristics for the four meteorological stations located in the Thrace region of Turkey, namely Edirne, Tekirdag, Kirklareli and Sariyer (Istanbul). The results indicate that annual total precipitation has an increasing trend for the Kirklareli and Sariyer stations (z = 1.730 and z = 2.127) and a decreasing trend for the Edirne and Tekirdag stations (z = − 0.368 and z = − 0.401). However, the precipitation intensity indices (SDII) of all stations show increasing trends that are statistically significant for the Edirne and Kirklareli stations. The Kirklareli station tends to have more days with heavy, very heavy and extremely heavy rainfall events (z = 2.241, z = 2.076 and z = 1.684, respectively). It is also anticipated that maximum amount of rainfalls in daily and consecutive five- and ten-day time scales will probably increase at all stations. Moreover, rainfall from very wet days and extremely wet days and fraction of total wet day rainfall that comes from very wet days and extremely wet days indices also show increasing trend tendencies for all stations. The remarkable point is the decreasing total precipitation trend at the Edirne and Tekirdag stations, contrary to the Kirklareli and Sariyer stations, which indicates that the annual total precipitation does not necessarily depend on extreme precipitation for the analyzed period.



中文翻译:

土耳其色雷斯地区极端降水指数趋势评估

全球范围内极端天气事件的频率和严重性正在增加,并且由于我们不断变化的气候,在未来几十年中,这种趋势将继续下去。由于这些事件会对社会,自然和经济环境造成重大负面影响,因此了解这些事件的特征至关重要。在这项研究中,确定并检查了位于土耳其色雷斯地区的四个气象站的趋势和统计特征方面的14个极端降雨指数,这些气象站是埃迪尔内,特基尔达格,基克拉雷利和萨里耶尔(伊斯坦布尔)。结果表明,Kirklareli和Sariyer站的年总降水量呈上升趋势(z  = 1.730和z  = 2.127),而Edirne和Tekirdag站的年降水量呈下降趋势(z = 1.730和z = 2.127)。z  = − 0.368和 z  = − 0.401)。但是,所有台站的降水强度指数(SDII)均显示出上升趋势,这对爱迪尔内站和柯克雷利站具有统计学意义。Kirklareli站往往会有更多的日子,包括大,非常大和非常大的降雨事件(z  = 2.241,z  = 2.076和 z 分别为1.684)。还可以预料,在每天以及连续的五天和十天时间范围内,所有站点的最大降雨量可能会增加。此外,来自极湿天和极湿天的降雨以及来自极湿天和极湿天指数的总湿天降雨量的分数也显示所有站的趋势趋势都在增加。值得注意的是,爱迪尔内和特基尔达格站的总降水量趋势在下降,这与柯克雷利和萨里耶尔站的情况相反,这表明在分析期内年总降水量不一定取决于极端降水。

更新日期:2021-01-05
down
wechat
bug