This article studies the effects of increasing political uncertainty on the functioning of futures markets. For this purpose, we utilize a unique natural experiment, namely the discussions around and the final coming into force of the German Exchange Act of 1896. Using static and time-varying vector error correction models, the empirical analysis shows that, although early futures markets exhibit a high degree of operational efficiency, increasing political tensions were related to a declining dominance of the futures market in the price discovery process. In summary, we provide a strong illustration of the negative consequences of misplaced regulatory attempts caused by strong political interests.

中文翻译：

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日益紧张的政治局势下的信息传输——来自柏林农产品交易所 1887-1896 的证据

本文研究了政治不确定性增加对期货市场运作的影响。为此，我们利用了一个独特的自然实验，即围绕 1896 年德国交易法的讨论和最终生效。使用静态和时变矢量误差校正模型，实证分析表明，尽管早期期货市场表现出高度的运营效率，日益加剧的政治紧张局势与期货市场在价格发现过程中的主导地位下降有关。总之，我们有力地说明了由强大的政治利益引起的错误监管尝试的负面后果。