In this article, we analyse whether tourism promotes economic growth using a general dynamic panel data model that incorporates individual and interactive fixed effects and allows for contemporaneous correlation in model innovations. The empirical study is based on quarterly series of GDP and tourist arrivals for 14 European countries covering the period from 1995 to 2019. Results indicate that the case for a positive long-run relationship between tourism and economic growth is rather weak, being slightly stronger for the period prior to the global economic and financial crisis from 2007 to 2010. When applying panel fractional cointegration techniques, we find evidence in favour of the tourism-led growth hypothesis (TLGH) for the full sample mainly for North European countries. For the pre-crisis period, on the other hand, we find evidence in favour of the TLGH for the relevant tourist destinations Spain and France.

在本文中，我们使用通用的动态面板数据模型分析了旅游业是否促进了经济增长，该模型结合了个体和互动的固定效应，并允许模型创新中的同时相关。实证研究基于1995年至2019年期间14个欧洲国家的GDP和游客入境量的季度序列。结果表明，旅游业与经济增长之间存在长期长期正相关关系的情况相当薄弱，而对这是2007年至2010年全球经济和金融危机之前的时期。当采用面板分数协整技术时，我们发现主要针对北欧国家的全部样本都支持以旅游业主导的增长假设（TLGH）。另一方面，在危机前时期，