ABSTRACT

This article investigates the post-1990 link between broad money growth and inflation in 16 full-fledged inflation-targeting regimes and four benchmark non-inflation-targeting regimes. This study employs the Christiano-Fitzgerald band-pass filter and continuous wavelet transform to analyze the co-movements across operational horizons and time. According to the band-pass filtering techniques, the link between money growth and inflation was weak and statistically nonsignificant over the investigated period: from 1990 onwards. The wavelet analysis demonstrated significant causality running from money growth to inflation, and strong significant co-movements between the two variables around the Great Recession at a typical business cycle frequency. This finding suggests that policymakers may need to respond to the short-run surges in money growth by reducing money growth rates. The empirical findings support the proposal that policymakers should return to a monetary framework that controls the money supply.

摘要

本文研究了1990年后16个成熟的通胀目标制和4个基准非通胀目标制之间广义货币增长与通胀之间的联系。这项研究采用了Christiano-Fitzgerald带通滤波器和连续小波变换来分析跨运营视野和时间的协同运动。根据带通滤波技术，在调查期间（从1990年开始），货币增长与通货膨胀之间的联系较弱且在统计上不显着。小波分析显示了从货币增长到通货膨胀的显着因果关系，并且在典型的商业周期频率中，围绕大萧条的两个变量之间存在强烈的显着联动。这一发现表明，决策者可能需要通过降低货币增长率来应对货币增长的短期激增。实证结果支持以下建议：决策者应重返控制货币供应的货币框架。