ABSTRACT

We use a cross-country dataset on terrorism and leadership survival from 1970 through 2015 to shed light on a leader’s fate after terrorists’ strike. We provide robust evidence that incumbents in electoral authoritarian regimes face an increased hazard of exit from political power. This is contrasted with the closed authoritarian dictators that remain intact. Moreover, we fail to find a robust effect of terrorism on a leader’s survival probability in democracies. We conceive this effect to be due to the collapse of the elite coalition in autocracies after an attack, suggesting that the dictator’s ‘loyal friends’ betray him in the aftermath of terrorism.

摘要

我们使用从 1970 年到 2015 年关于恐怖主义和领导层生存的跨国数据集来揭示恐怖分子袭击后领导人的命运。我们提供了强有力的证据，表明选举专制政权的现任者面临退出政治权力的风险增加。这与保持完整的封闭独裁独裁者形成鲜明对比。此外，我们未能发现恐怖主义对民主国家领导人生存概率的强大影响。我们认为这种影响是由于专制国家的精英联盟在袭击后瓦解，这表明独裁者的“忠实朋友”在恐怖主义之后背叛了他。