We compute steady‐state economic growth—defined as the rate of growth that the economy would converge to in the absence of new shocks. As we show, this rate can be computed in real‐time by means of a parsimonious time‐varying parameter (TVP) vector autoregression model. Our procedure offers a relatively agnostic estimation of benchmark equilibrium growth rates. Estimates show that the steady‐state gross domestic product growth rate in the case of the United States has declined from just above 3% per year in the 1990s to 2.4% at present. Results for other six advanced economies and the euro area indicate that the steady‐state growth rate, which is consistent with stable inflation and financial conditions, has been relatively stable since 2010 in most cases in spite of a recent slowdown in actual GDP growth rates. In contrast, per capita steady‐state growth rates during the last decade were typically lower than in the 1990s.

中文翻译：

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稳态增长

我们计算稳态经济增长-定义为在没有新冲击的情况下经济将收敛的增长率。正如我们所展示的，可以使用简约时变参数（TVP）向量自回归模型实时计算该速率。我们的程序提供了基准平衡增长率的相对不可知的估计。估计显示，就美国而言，稳态国内生产总值增长率已从1990年代的每年略高于3％降至目前的2.4％。其他六个发达经济体和欧元区的结果表明，尽管实际GDP增长率最近有所下降，但自2010年以来，与稳定的通货膨胀和金融状况相一致的稳态增长率一直相对稳定。相比之下，